Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BOS went from 87% to 82% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Mon, Nov 2, 9:47 PM ESTPaul George back · forecast BOS 86%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Tyler HerroPoints25
- Myles TurnerAssists6
- Ryan RollinsRebounds9
Celtics- Paul GeorgePoints25
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–109
- Q414.2Sam Hauser enters the game for Mitchell Robinson102–109
- Q416.2Celtics defensive team rebound102–109
- Q416.2AJ Green misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot102–109
- Q419.8AJ Green enters the game for Jericho Sims102–109
- Q419.8Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Sam Hauser102–109
- Q419.8Bucks Full timeout102–109
- Q419.8Jericho Sims enters the game for AJ Green102–109
- Q419.8Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2102–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:16Nate Ament makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 85 – 87 BOS · MIL 16% → 26% +10MIL 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q46:08Paul George makes two point shot (Derrick White assists)MIL 92 – 95 BOS · BOS 68% → 78% +10BOS 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q45:08Brayden Burries makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (AJ Green assists)MIL 96 – 95 BOS · MIL 32% → 45% +12MIL 32% → 45%+12 pts
- Q43:06Neemias Queta makes 2-foot layup (Paul George assists)MIL 97 – 99 BOS · BOS 59% → 74% +15BOS 59% → 74%+15 pts
- Q42:22Derrick White makes 1-foot layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)MIL 97 – 101 BOS · BOS 75% → 87% +12BOS 75% → 87%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Celtics 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML MIL +424 / BOS -567
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.8%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -445
- MIL +445 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 106.0 – 117.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −51 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum (40% to sit) −25, Payton Pritchard (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone and BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +189 Elo | BOS 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 84.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 83.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 115.013th of 30 |
| 28th of 30124.1 | Points allowed | 109.110th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−13.0 | Margin | +5.99th of 30 |
| 24th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 114.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 108.512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.9 | Pace | 99.227th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149418th of 30 |
| 24th of 301388 | Elo rating | 16047th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–8 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Apr 3BOS 133 @ MIL 101Picked BOS 93%Hit
- Mar 2BOS 108 @ MIL 81Picked BOS 55%Hit
- Feb 1MIL 79 @ BOS 107Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 11BOS 101 @ MIL 116Picked BOS 77%Miss
- Dec 6MIL 105 @ BOS 111Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 10BOS 113 @ MIL 107Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Oct 28MIL 108 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 77%Hit
- Apr 9BOS 91 @ MIL 104Picked BOS 63%Miss