Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIN went from 77% to 78% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Tyler HerroPoints21
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists7
- Brayden BurriesRebounds9
Timberwolves- LaMelo BallPoints34
- Ayo DosunmuAssists8
- Ayo DosunmuRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–112
- Q418.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot100–112
- Q427.9Cody Williams enters the game for Jaden McDaniels98–112
- Q427.9Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 298–112
- Q427.9Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 298–111
- Q427.9Jaime Jaquez Jr. personal take foul98–110
- Q434.8Jaden McDaniels offensive rebound98–110
- Q434.8Ayo Dosunmu misses 24-foot three point jumper98–110
- Q457.8Tyler Herro makes 3-foot two point shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)98–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:33Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIL 50 – 48 MIN · MIL 25% → 33% +8MIL 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q35:00Tyler Herro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIL 63 – 65 MIN · MIL 17% → 25% +8MIL 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q34:44Bones Hyland makes 24-foot three pointerMIL 63 – 68 MIN · MIN 75% → 83% +8MIN 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q33:55AJ Green makes 24-foot three pointer (Tyler Herro assists)MIL 67 – 68 MIN · MIL 20% → 28% +8MIL 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q31:40Trey Lyles makes 24-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)MIL 71 – 76 MIN · MIN 74% → 83% +9MIN 74% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -11.5
- ML MIL +380 / MIN -497
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7
- MIN 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 75.4%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -400
- MIL +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.0 – 122.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −44 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +194 Elo | MIN 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 77.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 120.05th of 30 |
| 28th of 30126.2 | Points allowed | 108.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−13.2 | Margin | +11.35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 114.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 103.74th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.8 | Pace | 103.19th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Opponent Elo | 15277th of 30 |
| 24th of 301393 | Elo rating | 16106th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.