Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SA went from 73% to 82% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Ayo DosunmuPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists4
- Ayo DosunmuRebounds9
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints43
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- De'Aaron FoxRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–121
- Q41.6shot clock turnover111–121
- Q425.6Jaden McDaniels out of bounds lost ball turnover111–121
- Q427.1De'Aaron Fox makes 1-foot two point shot111–121
- Q445.2Ayo Dosunmu bad pass
turnover (Julian Champagnie steals)111–119
- Q447.2Trey Lyles enters the game for Jaylen Clark111–119
- Q447.2Timberwolves Full timeout111–119
- Q447.9Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound111–119
- Q447.9Dylan Harper misses free throw 2 of 2111–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:39Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)MIN 56 – 50 SA · MIN 32% → 39% +8MIN 32% → 39%+8 pts
- Q21:20Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)MIN 61 – 54 SA · MIN 35% → 43% +8MIN 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q259.1Victor Wembanyama makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 61 – 57 SA · SA 56% → 65% +8SA 56% → 65%+8 pts
- Q210.5Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 61 – 60 SA · SA 64% → 72% +8SA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q411:35Dylan Harper makes 26-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)MIN 88 – 96 SA · SA 84% → 90% +7SA 84% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -12.5
- ML MIN +440 / SA -600
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- SA: Elo 69.7%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -463
- MIN +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 108.0 – 120.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −60 | +7 | MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −42, Rudy Gobert (40% to sit) −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +145 Elo | SA 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.5 | Points scored | 116.613th of 30 |
| 7th of 30106.7 | Points allowed | 110.011th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+14.8 | Margin | +6.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 112.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.4 | Defense rating | 106.38th of 30 |
| 12th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.519th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 148020th of 30 |
| 4th of 301615 | Elo rating | 16293rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–7 SA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.
- May 15SA 139 @ MIN 109PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Hit
- May 12MIN 97 @ SA 126PlayoffsPicked SA 77%Hit
- May 10SA 109 @ MIN 114PlayoffsPicked SA 64%Miss
- May 8SA 115 @ MIN 108PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Hit
- May 6MIN 95 @ SA 133PlayoffsPicked SA 78%Hit
- May 4MIN 104 @ SA 102PlayoffsPicked SA 77%Miss
- Jan 17MIN 123 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Jan 11SA 103 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 56%Hit