San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
UTAH went from 26% to 17% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints36
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints31
- Isaiah CollierAssists6
- Jaxson HayesRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game117–111
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime117–111
- OT10.4Jaxson Hayes personal foul117–111
- OT12.3Dylan Harper defensive rebound117–111
- OT12.3Keyonte George misses 14-foot floating jump shot117–111
- OT26.4Ace Bailey defensive rebound117–111
- OT26.4Devin Vassell misses 15-foot jumper117–111
- OT50.1Brice Sensabaugh makes 28-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)117–111
- OT58.1De'Aaron Fox makes 2-foot running dunk117–108
- OT59.7Keyonte George bad pass
turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)115–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:56Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 105 – 103 UTAH · UTAH 7% → 24% +17UTAH 7% → 24%+17 pts
- Q441.4Keyonte George makes driving layupSA 105 – 105 UTAH · UTAH 16% → 45% +29UTAH 16% → 45%+29 pts
- OT3:15Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point jumperSA 105 – 108 UTAH · UTAH 40% → 64% +24UTAH 40% → 64%+24 pts
- OT2:53Devin Vassell makes 10-foot jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 107 – 108 UTAH · SA 34% → 51% +17SA 34% → 51%+17 pts
- OT1:53Devin Vassell makes tip in dunkSA 111 – 108 UTAH · SA 67% → 84% +16SA 67% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -13.5
- ML SA -650 / UTAH +470
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6.5
- SA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- SA: Elo 73.8%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -494
- UTAH +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 123.5 – 110.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1344 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +30 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −22, Lauri Markkanen (40% to sit) −14, Jusuf Nurkic −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +180 Elo | SA 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 80.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 112.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 121.024th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+6.8 | Margin | −8.324th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 109.515th of 30 |
| 9th of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 117.526th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.7 | Pace | 102.915th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 1–217th of 30 |
| 14th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 146123rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301626 | Elo rating | 134128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 62–44 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–36 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders | 48–58 | 49–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 6–4 UTAH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 22SA 126 @ UTAH 109Picked SA 82%Hit
- Jan 19UTAH 110 @ SA 123Picked SA 87%Hit
- Dec 27UTAH 127 @ SA 114Picked SA 85%Miss
- Nov 26SA 128 @ UTAH 115Picked SA 53%Hit
- Nov 21UTAH 118 @ SA 126Picked SA 57%Hit
- Nov 9UTAH 111 @ SA 110Picked SA 69%Miss
- Oct 31SA 106 @ UTAH 88Picked SA 56%Hit
- Mar 27SA 118 @ UTAH 111Picked UTAH 59%Miss