Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
UTAH went from 53% to 50% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints16
- Ty JeromeAssists8
- Cedric CowardRebounds11
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints26
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Ace BaileyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–105
- Q49.2Jaylen Wells defensive rebound110–105
- Q49.2Brice Sensabaugh misses 23-foot three point jumper110–105
- Q411.6Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Josh Green110–105
- Q411.6Jazz Full timeout110–105
- Q411.6Ty Jerome makes free throw 2 of 2110–105
- Q411.6Ty Jerome makes free throw 1 of 2109–105
- Q411.6Josh Green personal foul108–105
- Q421.0Cameron Boozer defensive rebound108–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:03Darryn Peterson makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 100 – 98 UTAH · UTAH 21% → 37% +16UTAH 21% → 37%+16 pts
- Q43:37Keyonte George makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Darryn Peterson assists)MEM 102 – 100 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 35% +13UTAH 22% → 35%+13 pts
- Q42:44Ty Jerome makes 16-foot driving floating jump shotMEM 104 – 101 UTAH · MEM 59% → 74% +16MEM 59% → 74%+16 pts
- Q41:01Mo Bamba makes 2-foot dunk (Ace Bailey assists)MEM 106 – 105 UTAH · UTAH 14% → 36% +22UTAH 14% → 36%+22 pts
- Q441.0Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2MEM 107 – 105 UTAH · MEM 67% → 81% +14MEM 67% → 81%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jazz 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML MEM -110 / UTAH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- UTAH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- UTAH: Elo 48.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -100
- MEM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 119.5 – 118.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1350 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | UTAH and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +63 | +77 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Jaxson Hayes −7, Jusuf Nurkic −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +9 Elo | MEM 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 115.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 124.728th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+11.3 | Margin | −9.324th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 30106.3 | Defense rating | 120.528th of 30 |
| 25th of 30101.4 | Pace | 103.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 30 |
| 30th of 301395 | Opponent Elo | 147520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301421 | Elo rating | 134828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MEM |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–45 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 27–36 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 49–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 8–4 UTAH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.
- Oct 21UTAH 103 @ MEM 123Picked MEM 52%Hit
- Apr 10MEM 101 @ UTAH 147Picked UTAH 62%Hit
- Feb 20UTAH 114 @ MEM 123Picked MEM 55%Hit
- Dec 23MEM 137 @ UTAH 128Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Dec 12UTAH 130 @ MEM 126Picked MEM 71%Miss
- Mar 25MEM 140 @ UTAH 103Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Mar 12UTAH 115 @ MEM 122Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Jan 25UTAH 103 @ MEM 125Picked MEM 81%Hit