Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints31
- Ty JeromeAssists7
- Cedric CowardRebounds11
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints37
- Darius Acuff Jr.Assists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–112
- Q47.0Domantas Sabonis makes two point shot123–112
- Q48.3Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound123–110
- Q48.3Darius Acuff Jr. misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot123–110
- Q416.0shot clock turnover123–110
- Q440.5Zach LaVine lost ball turnover (Jaylen Wells steals)123–110
- Q445.5Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound123–110
- Q445.5Jaylen Wells misses 12-foot floating jump shot123–110
- Q41:10Zach LaVine lane violation turnover123–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q330.4Ty Jerome makes free throw 1 of 2MEM 93 – 84 SAC · MEM 71% → 83% +12MEM 71% → 83%+12 pts
- Q46:27Cameron Boozer makes 10-foot two point shotMEM 106 – 103 SAC · MEM 57% → 68% +11MEM 57% → 68%+11 pts
- Q45:41Domantas Sabonis makes 4-foot reverse layup (Zach LaVine assists)MEM 106 – 105 SAC · SAC 32% → 43% +11SAC 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q45:28Isaiah Stewart makes 5-foot floating jump shot (Ty Jerome assists)MEM 108 – 106 SAC · MEM 51% → 63% +12MEM 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q44:28Ty Jerome makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 114 – 106 SAC · MEM 81% → 92% +11MEM 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Grizzlies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- MEM 51%
- Fair odds
- MEM -113
- SAC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 116.5 – 115.6 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +14 | MEM: Missing Cedric Coward (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +9 Elo | MEM 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 111.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 121.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.0 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 109.326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 119.128th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–29 | Road vs home | 15–2625th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 30 |
| 25th of 301409 | Elo rating | 140126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MEM |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–45 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 27–36 | 32–41 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 4–6 SAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 23SAC 123 @ MEM 114Picked MEM 56%Miss
- Feb 4MEM 129 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 57%Miss
- Nov 30MEM 115 @ SAC 107Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Nov 20SAC 96 @ MEM 137Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Mar 17MEM 122 @ SAC 132Picked SAC 59%Hit
- Jan 3MEM 133 @ SAC 138Picked SAC 60%Hit
- Dec 5SAC 110 @ MEM 115Picked MEM 58%Hit
- Mar 18MEM 111 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 68%Hit