Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SA went from 87% to 91% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 11:35 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Andre HunterPoints24
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- Devin VassellAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–130
- Q42.9shot clock turnover103–130
- Q425.7Jonathan Mogbo bad pass
turnover (Jordan McLaughlin steals)103–130
- Q429.2Jonathan Mogbo offensive rebound103–130
- Q429.2Nique Clifford misses 24-foot three point jumper103–130
- Q444.4Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 1103–130
- Q444.4Jonathan Mogbo shooting foul103–129
- Q444.4Keldon Johnson makes 3-foot two point shot103–129
- Q452.8Tarris Reed Jr. defensive rebound103–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:27Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SAC 11 – 13 SA · SA 89% → 92% +3SA 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q17:01Devin Vassell makes 22-foot running jump shot (Dylan Harper assists)SAC 11 – 16 SA · SA 92% → 94% +2SA 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q14:15Darius Acuff Jr. makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotSAC 23 – 22 SA · SAC 9% → 12% +3SAC 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q13:57Julian Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SAC 23 – 25 SA · SA 88% → 91% +3SA 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q12:12Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot running jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)SAC 25 – 32 SA · SA 93% → 95% +2SA 93% → 95%+2 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- SA -18.5
- ML SAC +1000 / SA -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -9.5
- SA 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- SA: Elo 82.5%, market 91.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -1042
- SAC +1042 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 106.0 – 124.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1621 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +6 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +269 Elo | SA 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 89.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 88.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 91.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 112.021st of 30 |
| 27th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 112.014th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−14.7 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 24th of 30105.6 | Offense rating | 108.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Defense rating | 108.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 30103.6 | Pace | 103.614th of 30 |
| 19th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–219th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15622nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301390 | Elo rating | 16213rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 62–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 44–36 |
| Underdog | 32–41 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 48–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–5 SA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Mar 17SA 132 @ SAC 104Picked SA 86%Hit
- Feb 21SAC 122 @ SA 139Picked SA 91%Hit
- Nov 16SAC 110 @ SA 123Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 7SA 109 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Dec 6SAC 140 @ SA 113Picked SAC 69%Hit
- Dec 1SA 127 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 68%Miss
- Nov 11SAC 96 @ SA 116Picked SAC 57%Miss
- Mar 7SA 129 @ SAC 131Picked SAC 73%Hit