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New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast

FinalNBA TV, DAZN CLE

Away

Knicks

5-4

109–97

at

Home

Cavaliers

5-5

NY 60%CLE 40%

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Rocket Arena · NBA TV, DAZN CLE

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.

CLE favored NY favored100 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4CLE50%NY

How the forecast moved

CLE went from 44% to 40% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (CLE win chance) Betting line, margin removed
30%40%50%Tue 10 PMThu 9 PMSat 8 PM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks
Cavaliers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game109–97
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–97
  • Q411.2shot clock turnover109–97
  • Q435.2OG Anunoby defensive rebound109–97
  • Q435.2Meleek Thomas misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot109–97
  • Q442.8OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2109–97
  • Q442.8OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2108–97
  • Q442.8Donovan Mitchell personal foul107–97
  • Q442.8(00:42.8) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Cavaliers] retain their timeout107–97
  • Q442.8Cavaliers Full timeout107–97

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q27:13Riley Minix makes 25-foot three point jumper (Thomas Bryant assists)NY 34 – 39 CLE · CLE 47% → 54% +8
  2. Q26:46Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 37 – 39 CLE · NY 45% → 53% +8
  3. Q26:22Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Proctor assists)NY 37 – 42 CLE · CLE 47% → 55% +8
  4. Q24:40Meleek Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)NY 43 – 45 CLE · CLE 39% → 47% +8
  5. Q24:03Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot running jump shot (Mohamed Diawara assists)NY 46 – 45 CLE · NY 53% → 61% +8

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Knicks 60%

LeanHit
NY 60%CLE 40%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
NY 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -3.5
NY 64%
Fair odds
NY -152
CLE +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 113.4 – 110.2 CLE
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYCLEWhy
Team rating16461547Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40CLE on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−9−8NY: Missing Josh Hart (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen (40% to sit) −11 (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsNY +103 EloNY 64.4%
Market-implied ratingsNY 59.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 60.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatCLE
22nd of 30110.0Points scored119.24th of 30
3rd of 30105.1Points allowed114.720th of 30
10th of 30+4.9Margin+4.612th of 30
16th of 30111.0Offense rating114.09th of 30
5th of 30106.0Defense rating109.712th of 30
27th of 3099.4Pace103.56th of 30
20th of 301–2Road vs home4–14th of 30
19th of 301483Opponent Elo151314th of 30
2nd of 301646Elo rating15749th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

−12 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Cavaliers

−23 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksCavaliers
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYCLE
Against the spread2–52–6
Last 102–52–6
Favorite2–41–4
Underdog0–11–2
Overs–unders2–54–4
Overs–unders, last 102–54–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 8–6 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.