Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NY went from 83% to 82% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints14
- Josh GiddeyAssists6
- Leonard MillerRebounds6
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints33
- Tyler KolekAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–135
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)105–135
- Q44.4Jordan Hawkins makes driving layup105–135
- Q422.4James Wiseman makes tip shot103–135
- Q422.7James Wiseman offensive rebound103–133
- Q422.7Jose Alvarado misses driving layup103–133
- Q446.6Jaylin Sellers makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dailyn Swain assists)103–133
- Q41:03Pacome Dadiet makes driving layup (Mohamed Diawara assists)100–133
- Q41:10Mohamed Diawara offensive rebound100–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:56Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 3 – 2 NY · CHI 15% → 19% +4CHI 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q110:40Landry Shamet makes layup (Mikal Bridges assists)CHI 3 – 4 NY · NY 81% → 83% +3NY 81% → 83%+3 pts
- Q110:29Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 6 – 4 NY · CHI 17% → 21% +4CHI 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q19:38Jalen Brunson makes running layupCHI 6 – 8 NY · NY 82% → 84% +3NY 82% → 84%+3 pts
- Q18:35Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 8 – 15 NY · NY 87% → 90% +3NY 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Knicks 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -11.5
- ML CHI +443 / NY -597
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -11
- NY 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- NY: Elo 85.3%, market 82.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -465
- CHI +465 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.0 – 122.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1641 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −3 | CHI: Missing Jalen Smith (40% to sit) −7 · NY: Missing Josh Hart (40% to sit) −3 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NY +306 Elo | NY 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 84.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 82.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 106.427th of 30 |
| 30th of 30128.9 | Points allowed | 105.12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−16.3 | Margin | +1.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30103.8 | Offense rating | 107.822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 106.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.7 | Pace | 98.928th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 30 |
| 12th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 150516th of 30 |
| 26th of 301379 | Elo rating | 16411st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–8 NY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Oct 28NY 133 @ CHI 127Picked NY 71%Hit
- Apr 3CHI 96 @ NY 136Picked NY 89%Hit
- Feb 22NY 105 @ CHI 99Picked NY 76%Hit
- Nov 2CHI 116 @ NY 128Picked NY 72%Hit
- Oct 31NY 125 @ CHI 135Picked NY 64%Miss
- Feb 20CHI 111 @ NY 113Picked NY 78%Hit
- Jan 4NY 126 @ CHI 139Picked NY 66%Miss
- Nov 13CHI 124 @ NY 123Picked NY 75%Miss