Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SAC went from 28% to 17% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 8:54 PM ESTDomantas Sabonis out · forecast SAC 17%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints29
- Davion MitchellAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Kings- Darius Acuff Jr.Points32
- Darius Acuff Jr.Assists10
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–108
- Q45.7Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound114–108
- Q45.7Keegan Murray misses 26-foot fade away jump shot114–108
- Q413.8Darius Acuff Jr. defensive rebound114–108
- Q413.8Davion Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2114–108
- Q413.8Heat offensive team rebound114–108
- Q413.8Davion Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2114–108
- Q413.8Malik Monk personal foul114–108
- Q417.1De'Andre Hunter makes 29-foot three point jumper (Darius Acuff Jr. assists)114–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:06Ryan Conwell makes 24-foot running jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 94 – 90 SAC · MIA 70% → 81% +12MIA 70% → 81%+12 pts
- Q47:07Darius Acuff Jr. makes 24-foot three pointerMIA 94 – 93 SAC · SAC 18% → 31% +13SAC 18% → 31%+13 pts
- Q45:56Pelle Larsson makes 24-foot three pointer (Klay Thompson assists)MIA 98 – 95 SAC · MIA 63% → 78% +15MIA 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q44:08Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 104 – 99 SAC · MIA 79% → 88% +9MIA 79% → 88%+9 pts
- Q43:18Klay Thompson makes running layup (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 106 – 101 SAC · MIA 80% → 89% +9MIA 80% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Heat 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -12.5
- ML MIA -620 / SAC +458
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 64.3%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -481
- SAC +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 124.0 – 111.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −28 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing Domantas Sabonis −43 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +102 Elo | MIA 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 81.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 109.223rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 123.329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−6.6 | Margin | −14.129th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 106.423rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 120.129th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Pace | 102.76th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 0–427th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 152210th of 30 |
| 21st of 301451 | Elo rating | 136526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–7 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.