Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NO went from 61% to 62% over 7 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Darius Acuff Jr.Points34
- Darius Acuff Jr.Assists14
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints22
- Jeremiah FearsAssists13
- Jeremiah FearsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–132
- Q411.8Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound120–132
- Q411.8Jeremiah Fears blocks Darius Acuff Jr. 's 28-foot three point pullup jump shot120–132
- Q418.9Karlo Matkovic makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Jeremiah Fears assists)120–132
- Q435.6Trey Murphy III defensive rebound120–130
- Q435.6Zach LaVine misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot120–130
- Q441.7Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2120–130
- Q441.7Pelicans offensive team rebound120–129
- Q441.7Trey Murphy III misses free throw 1 of 2120–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:41Jeremiah Fears makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)SAC 47 – 48 NO · NO 54% → 62% +8NO 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q22:37Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point jumperSAC 54 – 50 NO · SAC 44% → 52% +8SAC 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q243.8Jeremiah Fears makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)SAC 56 – 60 NO · NO 61% → 69% +8NO 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q24.5Karlo Matkovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)SAC 58 – 63 NO · NO 64% → 72% +8NO 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q20.0De'Andre Hunter makes 27-foot three pointerSAC 61 – 63 NO · SAC 28% → 36% +8SAC 28% → 36%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Pelicans 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -0.5
- NO 53%
- Fair odds
- NO -162
- SAC +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.9 – 118.5 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +15 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NO +20 Elo | NO 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 116.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.5 | Points allowed | 122.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−17.8 | Margin | −5.821st of 30 |
| 25th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 109.216th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.1 | Defense rating | 114.623rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.9 | Pace | 103.712th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 0–222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 145524th of 30 |
| 27th of 301384 | Elo rating | 140923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 13–4 |
| Underdog | 32–41 | 31–34 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–8 NO in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Apr 3NO 113 @ SAC 117Picked NO 68%Miss
- Mar 5NO 133 @ SAC 123Picked NO 70%Hit
- Feb 9SAC 94 @ NO 120Picked NO 77%Hit
- Feb 13SAC 133 @ NO 140Picked SAC 74%Miss
- Feb 12SAC 119 @ NO 111Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 8NO 118 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Dec 12SAC 111 @ NO 109Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Apr 11NO 135 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 53%Miss