San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SAC went from 13% to 13% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints30
- Stephon CastleAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Kings- Darius Acuff Jr.Points22
- Darius Acuff Jr.Assists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–109
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound124–109
- Q40.0Leaky Black misses heave jump shot124–109
- Q47.5Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2124–109
- Q47.5Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2123–109
- Q47.5Leaky Black shooting foul122–109
- Q411.1Nique Clifford bad pass
turnover (Jordan McLaughlin steals)122–109
- Q427.6Nique Clifford defensive rebound122–109
- Q427.6Dylan Cardwell blocks David Jones Garcia 's 7-foot driving layup122–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:45Darius Acuff Jr. makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotSA 2 – 5 SAC · SAC 13% → 17% +4SAC 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q18:08Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 10 – 8 SAC · SA 85% → 88% +4SA 85% → 88%+4 pts
- Q16:45Devin Vassell makes 36-foot three pointer (Stephon Castle assists)SA 15 – 13 SAC · SA 84% → 88% +4SA 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q15:35Emanuel Sharp makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SA 18 – 18 SAC · SAC 11% → 15% +4SAC 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q14:26Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 24 – 22 SAC · SA 84% → 87% +4SA 84% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -15.5
- ML SA -970 / SAC +640
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -7.5
- SA 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- SA: Elo 77.5%, market 87.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -671
- SAC +671 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 122.5 – 107.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +26 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +215 Elo | SA 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 87.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 87.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 109.325th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 123.329th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+8.3 | Margin | −14.029th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 105.425th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.3 | Defense rating | 118.928th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.9 | Pace | 103.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 150218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301639 | Elo rating | 136927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | — |
| Underdog | — | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 6–5 SAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Oct 27SAC 103 @ SA 130Picked SA 91%Hit
- Mar 17SA 132 @ SAC 104Picked SA 86%Hit
- Feb 21SAC 122 @ SA 139Picked SA 91%Hit
- Nov 16SAC 110 @ SA 123Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 7SA 109 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Dec 6SAC 140 @ SA 113Picked SAC 69%Hit
- Dec 1SA 127 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 68%Miss
- Nov 11SAC 96 @ SA 116Picked SAC 57%Miss