Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SA went from 85% to 81% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTKyrie Irving back · forecast SA 83%
Tue, Nov 3, 10:03 PM ESTSanti Aldama back · forecast SA 82%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints29
- Kyrie IrvingAssists5
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints52
- De'Aaron FoxAssists4
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds24
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–112
- Q42.5Dylan Harper defensive rebound111–112
- Q42.5Kyrie Irving misses 15-foot two point shot111–112
- Q424.2Mavericks Full timeout111–112
- Q424.2Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2111–112
- Q424.2Spurs offensive team rebound111–111
- Q424.2Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 1 of 2111–111
- Q424.2P.J. Washington shooting foul111–111
- Q443.3Stephon Castle defensive rebound111–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:38P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)DAL 103 – 100 SA · DAL 38% → 56% +18DAL 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q45:20Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 103 – 103 SA · SA 43% → 62% +18SA 43% → 62%+18 pts
- Q41:47Victor Wembanyama makes tip shotDAL 108 – 111 SA · SA 67% → 84% +17SA 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q41:41Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 111 – 111 SA · DAL 16% → 43% +28DAL 16% → 43%+28 pts
- Q424.2Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2DAL 111 – 112 SA · SA 53% → 74% +21SA 53% → 74%+21 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -11.5
- ML DAL +411 / SA -545
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -7
- SA 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- SA: Elo 74.9%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -432
- DAL +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 108.0 – 119.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1638 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +3 | DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −11, Santi Aldama −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Usual rotation (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +190 Elo | SA 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 117.610th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 108.37th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +9.36th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 113.810th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 104.84th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.913th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 30 |
| 7th of 301531 | Opponent Elo | 147824th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301447 | Elo rating | 16383rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–6 SA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- Oct 24SA 122 @ DAL 106Picked SA 86%Hit
- Apr 10DAL 120 @ SA 139Picked SA 92%Hit
- Feb 7DAL 125 @ SA 138Picked SA 79%Hit
- Feb 5SA 135 @ DAL 123Picked SA 73%Hit
- Oct 22SA 125 @ DAL 92Picked DAL 61%Miss
- Mar 12DAL 116 @ SA 126Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 10DAL 133 @ SA 129Picked SA 69%Miss
- Nov 16SA 93 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 85%Hit