Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SA went from 90% to 90% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints22
- Darryn PetersonAssists6
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds8
Spurs- Dylan HarperPoints17
- Dylan HarperAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–119
- Q420.7Isaiah Collier out of bounds bad pass turnover97–119
- Q420.7Isaiah Collier offensive rebound97–119
- Q420.7Tarris Reed Jr. blocks Isaiah Collier's two point shot97–119
- Q432.2Tarris Reed Jr. makes free throw 2 of 297–119
- Q432.2Tarris Reed Jr. makes free throw 1 of 297–118
- Q432.2Darryn Peterson shooting foul97–117
- Q432.2Tarris Reed Jr. offensive rebound97–117
- Q432.2Jordan McLaughlin misses driving layup97–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:28Keldon Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)UTAH 22 – 30 SA · SA 91% → 93% +3SA 91% → 93%+3 pts
- Q26:54Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three pointer (Brice Sensabaugh assists)UTAH 34 – 35 SA · UTAH 11% → 15% +4UTAH 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q26:34Victor Wembanyama makes tip in dunkUTAH 34 – 37 SA · SA 85% → 88% +3SA 85% → 88%+3 pts
- Q25:05Luke Kornet makes two point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)UTAH 36 – 39 SA · SA 84% → 87% +3SA 84% → 87%+3 pts
- Q24:34Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)UTAH 36 – 42 SA · SA 87% → 91% +4SA 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -16.5
- ML UTAH +740 / SA -1180
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -12.5
- SA 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SA: Elo 88.0%, market 88.6%
- Fair odds
- SA -774
- UTAH +774 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 105.0 – 121.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +18 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +346 Elo | SA 88.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 91.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 91.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 88.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 117.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 110.212th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−10.2 | Margin | +7.28th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 113.69th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 106.68th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.715th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 30 |
| 9th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 150218th of 30 |
| 30th of 301329 | Elo rating | 16343rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 4–7 SA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Oct 28SA 117 @ UTAH 111Picked SA 83%Hit
- Jan 22SA 126 @ UTAH 109Picked SA 82%Hit
- Jan 19UTAH 110 @ SA 123Picked SA 87%Hit
- Dec 27UTAH 127 @ SA 114Picked SA 85%Miss
- Nov 26SA 128 @ UTAH 115Picked SA 53%Hit
- Nov 21UTAH 118 @ SA 126Picked SA 57%Hit
- Nov 9UTAH 111 @ SA 110Picked SA 69%Miss
- Oct 31SA 106 @ UTAH 88Picked SA 56%Hit