Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
UTAH went from 22% to 27% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints24
- Damian LillardAssists4
- Donovan ClinganRebounds9
Jazz- Darryn PetersonPoints16
- Darryn PetersonAssists4
- Ace BaileyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–90
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–90
- Q414.9shot clock turnover112–90
- Q440.9Vit Krejci defensive rebound112–90
- Q440.9Brice Sensabaugh misses 26-foot three point jumper112–90
- Q448.5Jazz defensive team rebound112–90
- Q448.5Chris Youngblood misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot112–90
- Q41:07Kyle Filipowski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)112–90
- Q41:20Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2112–87
- Q41:20Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2111–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:50Darryn Peterson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)POR 2 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 24% → 30% +5UTAH 24% → 30%+5 pts
- Q19:36Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 5 – 3 UTAH · POR 70% → 76% +5POR 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q18:30Ace Bailey makes 5-foot running dunk (Keyonte George assists)POR 6 – 7 UTAH · UTAH 26% → 30% +4UTAH 26% → 30%+4 pts
- Q16:07Damian Lillard makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 14 – 7 UTAH · POR 78% → 83% +5POR 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q154.8Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darryn Peterson assists)POR 25 – 17 UTAH · UTAH 12% → 16% +4UTAH 12% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Trail Blazers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- POR -7.5
- ML POR -310 / UTAH +250
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5
- POR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- POR: Elo 68.7%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- POR -265
- UTAH +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 119.5 – 112.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1341 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +29 | POR: Missing Ja Morant −24, Robert Williams III (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −21, Lauri Markkanen (40% to sit) −13, Jusuf Nurkic −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +137 Elo | POR 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 74.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.8 | Points scored | 112.419th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 120.223rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+8.8 | Margin | −7.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 108.420th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 115.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30103.0 | Pace | 101.617th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
| 24th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 150615th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Elo rating | 133829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  POR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–42 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders | 44–43 | 49–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 7–5 UTAH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Mar 13UTAH 114 @ POR 124Picked POR 89%Hit
- Feb 12POR 135 @ UTAH 119Picked POR 67%Hit
- Jan 5UTAH 117 @ POR 137Picked POR 67%Hit
- Oct 29POR 136 @ UTAH 134Picked POR 58%Hit
- Apr 9POR 126 @ UTAH 133Picked POR 69%Miss
- Feb 24POR 114 @ UTAH 112Picked POR 72%Hit
- Dec 26UTAH 120 @ POR 122Picked POR 59%Hit
- Dec 6UTAH 141 @ POR 99Picked POR 61%Miss