Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
POR went from 75% to 76% over 8 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cameron BoozerPoints18
- Cameron BoozerAssists12
- Cameron BoozerRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints24
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Deni AvdijaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–103
- Q417.4Branden Carlson defensive rebound124–103
- Q417.4Kris Murray misses 24-foot three point jumper124–103
- Q422.2Grizzlies offensive team rebound124–103
- Q422.2Taylor Hendricks misses 27-foot three point jumper124–103
- Q427.3Kris Murray offensive rebound124–103
- Q427.3Karim Lopez misses 22-foot three point jumper124–103
- Q434.8Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound124–103
- Q434.8Micah Potter misses driving floating jump shot124–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:13Jaylen Wells makes 22-foot running jump shot (GG Jackson assists)MEM 72 – 66 POR · MEM 43% → 53% +10MEM 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q36:00Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)MEM 72 – 69 POR · POR 47% → 57% +10POR 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q35:48Isaiah Stewart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 75 – 69 POR · MEM 43% → 53% +10MEM 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q34:35Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 77 – 75 POR · POR 49% → 60% +11POR 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q49:49Zach Edey makes 25-foot running jump shot (Ty Jerome assists)MEM 96 – 85 POR · MEM 73% → 83% +10MEM 73% → 83%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Trail Blazers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -6
- POR 72%
- Fair odds
- POR -320
- MEM +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 110.0 – 118.8 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +95 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | POR +164 Elo | POR 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 129.31st of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 110.712th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+9.8 | Margin | +18.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 125.61st of 30 |
| 6th of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 107.511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.814th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 30th of 301385 | Opponent Elo | 148520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301427 | Elo rating | 152215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MEM |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–45 | 45–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 27–36 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 44–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 4–7 POR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Mar 4POR 122 @ MEM 114Picked POR 77%Hit
- Feb 7MEM 115 @ POR 122Picked POR 74%Hit
- Feb 6MEM 115 @ POR 135Picked POR 71%Hit
- Dec 7POR 96 @ MEM 119Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Mar 19MEM 99 @ POR 115Picked MEM 62%Miss
- Nov 25POR 98 @ MEM 123Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Nov 10MEM 134 @ POR 89Picked MEM 52%Hit
- Mar 2POR 107 @ MEM 100Picked MEM 53%Miss