Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 69% to 71% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Darius Acuff Jr.Points25
- Malik MonkAssists7
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds10
Mavericks- Daniel GaffordPoints20
- Naji MarshallAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–100
- Q45.8shot clock turnover115–100
- Q429.8Tobi Lawal makes 2-foot layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)115–100
- Q444.0Leaky Black makes 22-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)115–98
- Q41:01Jett Howard makes two point shot (Naji Marshall assists)112–98
- Q41:06Naji Marshall defensive rebound112–96
- Q41:06De'Andre Hunter misses 25-foot three point jumper112–96
- Q41:29Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot112–96
- Q41:39Leaky Black enters the game for Zach LaVine112–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:12P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)SAC 62 – 58 DAL · DAL 43% → 52% +10DAL 43% → 52%+10 pts
- Q35:49Leaky Black makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Acuff Jr. assists)SAC 67 – 65 DAL · SAC 33% → 43% +10SAC 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q33:26Leaky Black makes 24-foot three point jumper (Darius Acuff Jr. assists)SAC 74 – 67 DAL · SAC 52% → 62% +11SAC 52% → 62%+11 pts
- Q410:21Emanuel Sharp makes 26-foot running jump shotSAC 86 – 74 DAL · SAC 74% → 86% +12SAC 74% → 86%+12 pts
- Q45:59Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)SAC 94 – 87 DAL · DAL 10% → 20% +10DAL 10% → 20%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7.5
- ML SAC +241 / DAL -297
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.7%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -255
- SAC +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.5 – 120.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −23 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +98 Elo | DAL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.3 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 30128.3 | Points allowed | 111.814th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−19.0 | Margin | +2.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 30103.8 | Offense rating | 112.411th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.9 | Defense rating | 109.915th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.3 | Pace | 101.017th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
| 18th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15561st of 30 |
| 28th of 301357 | Elo rating | 146622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 32–41 | 27–31 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 7–3 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 26SAC 130 @ DAL 121Picked DAL 73%Miss
- Jan 6DAL 100 @ SAC 98Picked DAL 63%Hit
- Dec 27DAL 107 @ SAC 113Picked DAL 56%Miss
- Mar 3SAC 122 @ DAL 98Picked SAC 54%Hit
- Feb 10SAC 129 @ DAL 128Picked SAC 51%Hit
- Dec 30DAL 100 @ SAC 110Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Mar 29DAL 107 @ SAC 103Picked DAL 56%Hit
- Mar 26DAL 132 @ SAC 96Picked DAL 52%Hit