Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MEM went from 66% to 75% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Darius Acuff Jr.Points38
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Grizzlies- Cameron BoozerPoints27
- Cam SpencerAssists13
- Cameron BoozerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–136
- Q413.9Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound105–136
- Q413.9Emanuel Sharp misses 26-foot three point jumper105–136
- Q421.7Carson Cooper out of bounds bad pass turnover105–136
- Q425.1Carson Cooper defensive rebound105–136
- Q425.1Nique Clifford misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot105–136
- Q430.5Karim Lopez makes two point shot105–136
- Q437.9Karim Lopez defensive rebound105–134
- Q437.9Karim Lopez blocks Nique Clifford's two point shot105–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52De'Andre Hunter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 3 – 0 MEM · SAC 25% → 30% +5SAC 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q17:12Cameron Boozer makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)SAC 9 – 11 MEM · MEM 72% → 77% +5MEM 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q14:57Isaiah Stewart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)SAC 11 – 14 MEM · MEM 73% → 79% +5MEM 73% → 79%+5 pts
- Q21:37Darius Acuff Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 52 – 58 MEM · SAC 13% → 18% +5SAC 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q21:24Cameron Boozer makes 24-foot three pointerSAC 52 – 61 MEM · MEM 82% → 87% +5MEM 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Grizzlies 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -8.5
- ML SAC +285 / MEM -360
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4
- MEM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 65.5%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -301
- SAC +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 110.5 – 119.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +51 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Ty Jerome (40% to sit) −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +112 Elo | MEM 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.2 | Points scored | 118.28th of 30 |
| 29th of 30126.8 | Points allowed | 106.24th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−16.6 | Margin | +12.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 116.15th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.7 | Defense rating | 104.36th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.2 | Pace | 101.617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 141030th of 30 |
| 27th of 301373 | Elo rating | 145322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  SAC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 32–41 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 43–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 6–5 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Oct 25MEM 123 @ SAC 112Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Feb 23SAC 123 @ MEM 114Picked MEM 56%Miss
- Feb 4MEM 129 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 57%Miss
- Nov 30MEM 115 @ SAC 107Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Nov 20SAC 96 @ MEM 137Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Mar 17MEM 122 @ SAC 132Picked SAC 59%Hit
- Jan 3MEM 133 @ SAC 138Picked SAC 60%Hit
- Dec 5SAC 110 @ MEM 115Picked MEM 58%Hit