Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SAC went from 24% to 18% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints40
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Kings- Darius Acuff Jr.Points22
- Darius Acuff Jr.Assists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–103
- Q416.7Domantas Sabonis makes two point shot116–103
- Q419.6Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound116–101
- Q419.6Lawson Lovering blocks Zach LaVine 's 7-foot driving layup116–101
- Q429.6Zach LaVine defensive rebound116–101
- Q429.6Cameron Carr misses 27-foot three point jumper116–101
- Q439.9Malik Monk makes 29-foot three point jumper (Darius Acuff Jr. assists)116–101
- Q450.6Malik Monk defensive goaltending violation116–98
- Q450.6Quentin Grimes makes running layup (Jaden Hardy assists)116–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:17Zach LaVine makes 28-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)LAL 8 – 16 SAC · SAC 28% → 34% +6SAC 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q17:01Matisse Thybulle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 11 – 16 SAC · LAL 66% → 72% +6LAL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q11:41Luka Doncic makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 25 – 27 SAC · LAL 70% → 75% +6LAL 70% → 75%+6 pts
- Q29:13Jake LaRavia makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)LAL 33 – 33 SAC · LAL 72% → 78% +6LAL 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q35:53Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 76 – 69 SAC · LAL 81% → 88% +6LAL 81% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -11.5
- ML LAL -574 / SAC +429
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -6
- LAL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 71.8%, market 81.8%
- Fair odds
- LAL -451
- SAC +451 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 123.0 – 111.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +28 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +162 Elo | LAL 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 81.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.5 | Points scored | 110.121st of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 124.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+7.3 | Margin | −14.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 105.725th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 119.328th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.5 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149518th of 30 |
| 8th of 301591 | Elo rating | 137626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | — |
| Underdog | — | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 7–5 SAC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Mar 1SAC 104 @ LAL 128Picked LAL 85%Hit
- Jan 12LAL 112 @ SAC 124Picked LAL 75%Miss
- Dec 28SAC 101 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 80%Hit
- Oct 26LAL 127 @ SAC 120Picked SAC 56%Miss
- Dec 28SAC 122 @ LAL 132Picked SAC 59%Miss
- Dec 21LAL 103 @ SAC 99Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Dec 19LAL 113 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 63%Miss
- Oct 26SAC 127 @ LAL 131Picked LAL 51%Hit