Miami Heat at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
UTAH went from 29% to 22% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 7:49 PM ESTJusuf Nurkic out, Lauri Markkanen out · forecast UTAH 26%
Mon, Nov 9, 10:50 PM ESTKeyonte George out, Lauri Markkanen back · forecast UTAH 22%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Jazz- Darryn PetersonPoints25
- Isaiah CollierAssists5
- Ace BaileyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–109
- Q42.2Brice Sensabaugh makes driving layup (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)115–109
- Q49.3Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2115–107
- Q49.3Josh Green enters the game for Isaiah Collier114–107
- Q49.3Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 2114–107
- Q49.3Isaiah Collier personal foul113–107
- Q417.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound113–107
- Q417.1Brice Sensabaugh misses 25-foot three point jumper113–107
- Q418.6Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Mo Bamba113–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:49Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darryn Peterson assists)MIA 0 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 27% +5UTAH 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q110:39Pelle Larsson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 4 – 8 UTAH · MIA 65% → 71% +6MIA 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q18:44Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 11 – 12 UTAH · MIA 70% → 75% +5MIA 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q11:44Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot three pointer (Ryan Conwell assists)MIA 26 – 23 UTAH · MIA 75% → 80% +5MIA 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q39:58Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 67 – 58 UTAH · MIA 84% → 89% +5MIA 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Heat 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -9.5
- ML MIA -423 / UTAH +331
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 61.9%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -349
- UTAH +349 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 119.0 – 109.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1313 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | −3 | MIA: Missing Giannis Antetokounmpo (40% to sit) −43 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −25, Lauri Markkanen (40% to sit) −16, Jusuf Nurkic −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +84 Elo | MIA 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 106.229th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 117.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.3 | Margin | −11.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 102.329th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 113.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Pace | 101.711th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 30 |
| 13th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15317th of 30 |
| 21st of 301456 | Elo rating | 131330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–8 | 1–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 1–8 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–7 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 1–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.