Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIN went from 82% to 84% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Darryn PetersonPoints26
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Darryn PetersonRebounds6
Timberwolves- Ayo DosunmuPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–115
- Q414.3Isaiah Collier makes 1-foot two point shot100–115
- Q425.3Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound98–115
- Q425.3Bones Hyland misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot98–115
- Q443.0Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot98–115
- Q444.6Brice Sensabaugh offensive rebound96–115
- Q444.6Brice Sensabaugh misses driving floating jump shot96–115
- Q455.9Tony Bradley offensive rebound96–115
- Q455.9Isaiah Collier misses 11-foot step back jumpshot96–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:37Darryn Peterson makes 23-foot three pointer (Jaxson Hayes assists)UTAH 54 – 57 MIN · UTAH 13% → 18% +5UTAH 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q310:59Josh Green makes 25-foot running jump shot (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 57 – 57 MIN · UTAH 18% → 24% +7UTAH 18% → 24%+7 pts
- Q36:37LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumperUTAH 63 – 66 MIN · MIN 73% → 81% +8MIN 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q33:10Darryn Peterson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 70 – 74 MIN · UTAH 11% → 18% +6UTAH 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q31:05Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)UTAH 76 – 85 MIN · MIN 87% → 92% +5MIN 87% → 92%+5 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Timberwolves 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML UTAH +504 / MIN -700
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10.5
- MIN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 84.9%, market 84.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -529
- UTAH +529 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 105.0 – 117.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1635 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −38 | UTAH: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −22, Jusuf Nurkic −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +300 Elo | MIN 84.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 82.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 84.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 118.46th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 107.76th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.3 | Margin | +10.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 30102.7 | Offense rating | 115.08th of 30 |
| 24th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.814th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 30 |
| 13th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 151215th of 30 |
| 30th of 301315 | Elo rating | 16354th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–7 | 8–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–7 | 8–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 1–6 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–10 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.
- Mar 18UTAH 111 @ MIN 147Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Jan 20MIN 122 @ UTAH 127Picked MIN 83%Miss
- Nov 10MIN 120 @ UTAH 113Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Nov 7UTAH 97 @ MIN 137Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Apr 13UTAH 105 @ MIN 116Picked MIN 95%Hit
- Mar 16UTAH 102 @ MIN 128Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Feb 28MIN 116 @ UTAH 117Picked MIN 62%Miss
- Jan 30MIN 138 @ UTAH 113Picked MIN 68%Hit