Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NO went from 43% to 40% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 10:03 PM ESTDejounte Murray back · forecast NO 42%
Wed, Nov 4, 11:31 PM ESTTrey Murphy III out · forecast NO 39%
Fri, Nov 6, 12:02 AM ESTTrey Murphy III back · forecast NO 40%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Ayo DosunmuPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Trey LylesRebounds13
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints24
- Jeremiah FearsAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–111
- Q40.5Pelicans offensive team rebound115–111
- Q40.5Dejounte Murray misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot115–111
- Q46.0Jonathan Kuminga makes 3-foot dunk (Trey Lyles assists)115–111
- Q412.4Jeremiah Fears makes running layup113–111
- Q415.0Ayo Dosunmu lost ball turnover (Jeremiah Fears steals)113–109
- Q422.8Trey Lyles enters the game for Rudy Gobert113–109
- Q422.8Timberwolves Full timeout113–109
- Q422.8Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 1113–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:26LaMelo Ball makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 80 – 79 NO · MIN 46% → 59% +13MIN 46% → 59%+13 pts
- Q49:07Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)MIN 85 – 84 NO · NO 28% → 41% +13NO 28% → 41%+13 pts
- Q47:57Dejounte Murray makes 23-foot running jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)MIN 87 – 89 NO · NO 41% → 56% +15NO 41% → 56%+15 pts
- Q46:37LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 92 – 89 NO · MIN 54% → 70% +16MIN 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q44:29Ayo Dosunmu makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trey Lyles assists)MIN 100 – 94 NO · MIN 72% → 86% +14MIN 72% → 86%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Timberwolves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -165 / NO +139
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.3%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- NO +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 117.0 – 112.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1629 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +29 | MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −44, Donte DiVincenzo −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +73 Elo | MIN 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 121.63rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 119.325th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.2 | Margin | +2.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 112.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.9 | Defense rating | 110.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.1 | Pace | 104.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 30 |
| 13th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 143429th of 30 |
| 4th of 301629 | Elo rating | 145320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–1 | 6–1 |
| Last 10 | 7–1 | 6–1 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–4 NO in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 12NO 126 @ MIN 132Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Feb 6NO 119 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 74%Miss
- Dec 4MIN 125 @ NO 116Picked MIN 82%Hit
- Dec 2MIN 149 @ NO 142Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Mar 21NO 93 @ MIN 134Picked MIN 86%Hit
- Mar 19NO 119 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 85%Miss
- Jan 7MIN 104 @ NO 97Picked MIN 61%Hit
- Jan 3NO 117 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 63%Miss