New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MEM went from 58% to 56% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints25
- Jeremiah FearsAssists7
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds11
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints40
- Cam SpencerAssists7
- Cameron BoozerRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game135–134
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime135–134
- OT0.7Herbert Jones defensive rebound135–134
- OT0.7Ty Jerome misses 14-foot pullup jump shot135–134
- OT7.3Trendon Watford enters the game for Karlo Matkovic135–134
- OT7.3Herbert Jones enters the game for Jeremiah Fears135–134
- OT7.3Cam Spencer enters the game for Kris Murray135–134
- OT7.3Ty Jerome enters the game for Jaylen Wells135–134
- OT7.3Grizzlies Full timeout135–134
- OT7.3Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 2135–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44.6Ty Jerome makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotNO 124 – 124 MEM · MEM <1% → 51% +50MEM <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT18.8Ty Jerome makes driving layupNO 133 – 133 MEM · MEM 10% → 51% +41MEM 10% → 51%+41 pts
- OT18.8Ty Jerome makes free throw 1 of 1NO 133 – 134 MEM · MEM 51% → 75% +24MEM 51% → 75%+24 pts
- OT7.3Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 2NO 134 – 134 MEM · NO 15% → 49% +35NO 15% → 49%+35 pts
- OT7.3Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 2NO 135 – 134 MEM · NO 49% → 84% +35NO 49% → 84%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML NO +178 / MEM -214
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4.5
- MEM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 66.7%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- MEM -189
- NO +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.0 – 118.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +75 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +120 Elo | MEM 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 121.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 106.04th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +15.21st of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 103.33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Pace | 102.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 27th of 301444 | Opponent Elo | 140030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301443 | Elo rating | 146921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NO |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–38 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–4 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 31–34 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 43–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–8 MEM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Jan 30MEM 106 @ NO 114Picked NO 58%Hit
- Jan 23NO 133 @ MEM 127Picked MEM 64%Miss
- Nov 26MEM 133 @ NO 128Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Oct 22NO 122 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Mar 9MEM 107 @ NO 104Picked MEM 79%Hit
- Jan 24NO 126 @ MEM 139Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Dec 27MEM 132 @ NO 124Picked MEM 71%Hit
- Nov 29NO 109 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 84%Hit