Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NO went from 43% to 38% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints14
- Kingston FlemingsAssists6
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints25
- Jeremiah FearsAssists7
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–121
- Q416.4shot clock turnover99–121
- Q441.6Asa Newell makes running layup (Dyson Daniels assists)99–121
- Q448.0Asa Newell defensive rebound97–121
- Q448.0Bryce McGowens misses 6-foot floating jump shot97–121
- Q41:14Dyson Daniels lost ball turnover (Bryce McGowens steals)97–121
- Q41:20Julian Reese offensive foul turnover97–121
- Q41:20Julian Reese offensive foul97–121
- Q41:40Asa Newell makes free throw 2 of 297–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:42Herbert Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)ATL 4 – 10 NO · NO 44% → 51% +6NO 44% → 51%+6 pts
- Q14:23Aaron Wiggins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kingston Flemings assists)ATL 15 – 20 NO · ATL 43% → 50% +7ATL 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q14:11Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)ATL 15 – 23 NO · NO 50% → 57% +7NO 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q27:50Aaron Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 31 – 41 NO · ATL 28% → 35% +7ATL 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q310:55CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 53 – 63 NO · ATL 22% → 30% +7ATL 22% → 30%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML ATL -185 / NO +154
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -165
- NO +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 122.5 – 118.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +15 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Dejounte Murray −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +22 Elo | ATL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 119.45th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 121.626th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −2.219th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 110.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.6 | Pace | 105.83rd of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 30 |
| 6th of 301538 | Opponent Elo | 143729th of 30 |
| 13th of 301528 | Elo rating | 142123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ATL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 13–4 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 31–34 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–1 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.