Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
HOU went from 65% to 73% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Ayo DosunmuPoints21
- Ayo DosunmuAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints21
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–107
- Q415.5Amen Thompson out of bounds lost ball turnover117–107
- Q419.2Amen Thompson offensive rebound117–107
- Q419.2Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2117–107
- Q419.2Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2117–107
- Q419.2Ayo Dosunmu personal foul117–106
- Q421.0Rockets offensive team rebound117–106
- Q421.0Tari Eason misses running pullup jump shot117–106
- Q428.2Alperen Sengun defensive rebound117–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:55LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 94 – 94 HOU · MIN 26% → 41% +15MIN 26% → 41%+15 pts
- Q46:04LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)MIN 99 – 96 HOU · MIN 42% → 59% +17MIN 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q45:27Jaylen Clark makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)MIN 102 – 98 HOU · MIN 48% → 66% +18MIN 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q43:46Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 104 – 102 HOU · HOU 22% → 42% +20HOU 22% → 42%+20 pts
- Q42:37Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)MIN 109 – 104 HOU · MIN 62% → 84% +22MIN 62% → 84%+22 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML MIN +251 / HOU -310
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.5%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -265
- MIN +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 106.0 – 114.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | +15 | MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −45, Donte DiVincenzo −2 · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +96 Elo | HOU 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 119.35th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 106.44th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.4 | Margin | +12.91st of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.3 | Defense rating | 106.78th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.7 | Pace | 99.726th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15278th of 30 |
| 6th of 301615 | Elo rating | 16185th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–1 | 7–1 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 7–1 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–3 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Apr 10MIN 136 @ HOU 132Picked HOU 80%Miss
- Mar 25HOU 108 @ MIN 110Picked HOU 54%Miss
- Jan 16MIN 105 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 59%Hit
- Feb 21MIN 115 @ HOU 121Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Feb 6HOU 114 @ MIN 127Picked MIN 52%Hit
- Dec 27MIN 113 @ HOU 112Picked HOU 50%Miss
- Nov 26HOU 117 @ MIN 111Picked MIN 55%Miss
- Apr 2HOU 106 @ MIN 113Picked MIN 62%Hit