Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NO went from 71% to 66% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 10:03 PM ESTDejounte Murray back · forecast NO 65%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints39
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds10
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints23
- Derik QueenAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game113–120
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime113–120
- OT0.0Jazz offensive team rebound113–120
- OT0.0Brice Sensabaugh misses heave jump shot113–120
- OT0.9Dejounte Murray makes free throw 2 of 2113–120
- OT0.9Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 2113–119
- OT0.9Darryn Peterson enters the game for Ace Bailey113–118
- OT0.9Ace Bailey personal foul113–118
- OT2.7Lauri Markkanen makes 30-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)113–118
- OT9.5Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Josh Green110–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:20Ace Bailey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Darryn Peterson assists)UTAH 96 – 95 NO · UTAH 31% → 54% +23UTAH 31% → 54%+23 pts
- Q41:36Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 99 – 100 NO · UTAH 11% → 36% +25UTAH 11% → 36%+25 pts
- Q439.4Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 104 – 100 NO · UTAH 65% → 96% +30UTAH 65% → 96%+30 pts
- Q46.4Dejounte Murray makes free throw 2 of 2UTAH 104 – 104 NO · NO 14% → 51% +37NO 14% → 51%+37 pts
- OT4:45Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 107 – 104 NO · UTAH 45% → 64% +19UTAH 45% → 64%+19 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pelicans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NO -5.5
- ML UTAH +180 / NO -217
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6
- NO 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- NO: Elo 72.2%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- NO -192
- UTAH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 114.5 – 120.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1325 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +30 | UTAH: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −22, Jusuf Nurkic −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NO +166 Elo | NO 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 71.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 121.93rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 120.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−11.9 | Margin | +1.715th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.5 | Offense rating | 113.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 111.617th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.9 | Pace | 104.54th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Opponent Elo | 144828th of 30 |
| 30th of 301325 | Elo rating | 144922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–8 NO in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Oct 23NO 119 @ UTAH 120Picked UTAH 50%Hit
- Apr 7UTAH 137 @ NO 156Picked NO 68%Hit
- Feb 28NO 115 @ UTAH 105Picked NO 66%Hit
- Feb 26NO 129 @ UTAH 118Picked NO 68%Hit
- Mar 2NO 128 @ UTAH 121Picked NO 72%Hit
- Jan 20UTAH 119 @ NO 123Picked NO 82%Hit
- Jan 17UTAH 123 @ NO 136Picked NO 84%Hit
- Jan 23UTAH 124 @ NO 153Picked NO 55%Hit