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Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast

FinalNBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Jazz

1-8

100–112

at

Home

Mavericks

5-4

UTAH 31%DAL 69%

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American Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored UTAH favored113 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4DAL50%UTAH

How the forecast moved

DAL went from 66% to 69% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (DAL win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
60%70%80%Mon 9 PMWed 8 PMFri 8 PM

Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTKyrie Irving back · forecast DAL 69%

Tue, Nov 3, 10:03 PM ESTSanti Aldama back · forecast DAL 73%

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mavericks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game100–112
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–112
  • Q40.0(00:00) [Jazz] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)98–112
  • Q41.0Isaiah Collier makes driving layup100–112
  • Q44.5shot clock turnover98–112
  • Q44.9Mavericks offensive team rebound98–112
  • Q44.9Brice Sensabaugh blocks Jett Howard's pullup jump shot98–112
  • Q428.5Brice Sensabaugh out of bounds bad pass turnover98–112
  • Q444.0Tony Bradley defensive rebound98–112
  • Q444.0Tobi Lawal misses 24-foot jump bank shot98–112

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q26:51Keyonte George makes 24-foot three pointer (Brice Sensabaugh assists)UTAH 45 – 40 DAL · UTAH 40% → 47% +8
  2. Q310:19Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 60 – 59 DAL · UTAH 31% → 40% +9
  3. Q310:02Cooper Flagg makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)UTAH 60 – 62 DAL · DAL 60% → 69% +9
  4. Q38:38Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 65 – 66 DAL · UTAH 26% → 34% +8
  5. Q38:02Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darryn Peterson assists)UTAH 68 – 68 DAL · UTAH 29% → 38% +9

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Mavericks 69%

SolidHit
UTAH 31%DAL 69%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
DAL -7.5
ML UTAH +208 / DAL -253
Pre-line forecast
DAL 70%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL -6
DAL 72%
Ratings vs. market
+3.5 pts
DAL: Elo 72.3%, market 68.8%
Fair odds
DAL -221
UTAH +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
ESPN's forecast
DAL 66%
Their last number before the game. Head-to-head
Pregame projection
UTAH 109.5 – 117.0 DAL
Posted spread, posted total 226.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorUTAHDALWhy
Team rating13211445Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+20+26UTAH: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −22, Jusuf Nurkic −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Santi Aldama −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDAL +167 EloDAL 72.3%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 69.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 70.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 68.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks compared, with each team's league rank
UTAHStatDAL
27th of 30107.8Points scored112.116th of 30
24th of 30119.0Points allowed112.312th of 30
26th of 30−11.3Margin−0.118th of 30
29th of 30103.1Offense rating110.817th of 30
23rd of 30113.9Defense rating110.915th of 30
16th of 30101.8Pace100.521st of 30
27th of 300–3Road vs home2–214th of 30
9th of 301527Opponent Elo15433rd of 30
30th of 301321Elo rating144523rd of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Jazz

+20 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Mavericks

+24 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

JazzMavericks
1200125013001350140014501500NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonUTAHDAL
Against the spread1–65–3
Last 101–65–3
Favorite0–10–1
Underdog1–55–2
Overs–unders1–62–6
Overs–unders, last 101–62–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

UTAH 4–7 DAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.