Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Heat at 83%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Heat rate higher (1460 to 1360 Elo), lineup changes favor the Heat and the Heat have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Bucks
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Heat
Now 70%
70%
with a win
66%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Heat 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7.5
- MIA 77%
- Fair odds
- MIA -501
- MIL +501 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIL 110.3 – 122.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1360 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +28 | MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +214 Elo | MIA 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 84.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 83.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 115.711th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 120.026th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−14.9 | Margin | −4.319th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.0 | Offense rating | 110.019th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.7 | Defense rating | 114.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.1 | Pace | 104.23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 281–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 28 |
| 27th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301532 | Opponent Elo | 149418th of 30 |
| 26th of 301360 | Elo rating | 146021st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−3.8 | Offense, adjusted | +2.53rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−3.7 | Defense, adjusted | −3.726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Bucks
−38 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | 28 | 13.9 | Available |
| Myles Turner | 28 | 16.7 | Available |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Brayden Burries | 26 | 16.1 | Available |
| Ryan Rollins | 23 | 18.0 | Available |
| AJ Green | 19 | 12.2 | Available |
| Nate Ament | 19 | 16.0 | Available |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 18 | 15.5 | Available |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 20.0 | Available |
| Ousmane Dieng | 13 | 12.5 | Available |
| Jericho Sims | 10 | 12.9 | Available |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 5 | 12.5 | Available |
Heat
+28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 35 | 16.4 | Available |
| Bam Adebayo | 33 | 24.0 | Available |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | 35.0 | Available |
| Pelle Larsson | 28 | 16.9 | Available |
| Klay Thompson | 26 | 15.9 | Available |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 17.4 | Available |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Ryan Conwell | 16 | 16.9 | Available |
| Keshad Johnson | 10 | 20.4 | Available |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8 | 16.4 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Bucks
1 listedTyler Herro G
OutHerro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.
Heat
Nothing on the injury report.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–3 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Mar 12MIL 105 @ MIA 112Picked MIA 66%Hit
- Feb 24MIA 117 @ MIL 128Picked MIA 66%Miss
- Nov 26MIL 103 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Apr 5MIL 121 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Feb 23MIA 113 @ MIL 120Picked MIL 61%Hit
- Jan 23MIA 96 @ MIL 125Picked MIL 68%Hit
- Nov 26MIL 106 @ MIA 103Picked MIA 67%Miss
- Feb 13MIA 123 @ MIL 97Picked MIL 56%Miss