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Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast

FinalNBA Cup - Group Play

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Raptors

5-4

121–107

at

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Bucks

1-8

TOR 70%MIL 30%

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Fiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.

MIL favored TOR favored127 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIL50%TOR

How the forecast moved

MIL went from 36% to 30% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (MIL win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
25%35%45%Mon 9 PMWed 8 PMFri 8 PM

Mon, Nov 2, 9:47 PM ESTJakob Poeltl out · forecast MIL 35%

Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTJakob Poeltl back · forecast MIL 30%

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Raptors
Bucks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game121–107
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–107
  • Q40.0(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)121–107
  • Q40.0AJ Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brayden Burries assists)121–107
  • Q410.2Jakob Poeltl makes finger roll layup121–104
  • Q417.3Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound119–104
  • Q417.3AJ Green misses 20-foot jumper119–104
  • Q424.6Jakob Poeltl makes 4-foot dunk (Jamal Shead assists)119–104
  • Q433.2Tyler Herro makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)117–104
  • Q435.4Bucks Full timeout117–102

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q35:19Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 71 – 72 MIL · MIL 32% → 41% +10
  2. Q34:52Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)TOR 71 – 75 MIL · MIL 41% → 52% +10
  3. Q33.5AJ Green makes 24-foot three pointer (Tyler Herro assists)TOR 89 – 87 MIL · MIL 22% → 32% +10
  4. Q48:41AJ Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brayden Burries assists)TOR 97 – 93 MIL · MIL 14% → 24% +10
  5. Q46:22Alijah Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 100 – 95 MIL · TOR 68% → 82% +13

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Raptors 70%

SolidHit
TOR 70%MIL 30%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
TOR -7.5
ML TOR -263 / MIL +216
Pre-line forecast
TOR 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR -2
TOR 58%
Ratings vs. market
−11.3 pts
TOR: Elo 58.3%, market 69.6%
Fair odds
TOR -229
MIL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
ESPN's forecast
TOR 60%
Their last number before the game. Head-to-head
Pregame projection
TOR 119.0 – 111.5 MIL
Posted spread, posted total 230.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORMILWhy
Team rating15221384Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−19+13TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −64, Scottie Barnes (40% to sit) −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12—TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsTOR +58 EloTOR 58.3%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 67.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 66.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 69.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatMIL
9th of 30117.9Points scored110.021st of 30
16th of 30113.5Points allowed122.327th of 30
12th of 30+4.4Margin−12.327th of 30
10th of 30113.4Offense rating106.123rd of 30
11th of 30109.2Defense rating117.927th of 30
5th of 30103.8Pace103.67th of 30
17th of 302–3Road vs home1–322nd of 30
19th of 301490Opponent Elo150816th of 30
15th of 301522Elo rating138425th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Raptors

−62 Elo
  • Immanuel Quickley right hamstring−22 Elo

Bucks

+13 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RaptorsBucks
135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORMIL
Against the spread4–23–5
Last 104–23–5
Favorite4–10–1
Underdog0–13–4
Overs–unders4–25–3
Overs–unders, last 104–25–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 5–5 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.