Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DEN went from 69% to 63% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Mon, Nov 2, 9:47 PM ESTJakob Poeltl out · forecast DEN 67%
Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTJakob Poeltl back · forecast DEN 62%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints22
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds6
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–128
- Q417.0Jaden Bradley makes free throw 2 of 2109–128
- Q417.0Jaden Bradley makes free throw 1 of 2108–128
- Q417.0DaRon Holmes II shooting foul107–128
- Q427.0Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 2 of 2107–128
- Q427.0Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 1 of 2107–127
- Q427.0Kyle Anderson personal foul107–126
- Q440.6Alijah Martin out of bounds bad pass turnover107–126
- Q445.3Ryan Nembhard bad pass
turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)107–126
- Q41:04Raptors offensive team rebound107–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:58Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 40 – 35 DEN · TOR 44% → 51% +7TOR 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q28:45Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)TOR 43 – 42 DEN · DEN 51% → 58% +7DEN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q26:52RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 50 – 47 DEN · TOR 39% → 47% +8TOR 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q26:15Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)TOR 53 – 49 DEN · TOR 42% → 50% +8TOR 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q251.5Aaron Gordon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)TOR 64 – 62 DEN · DEN 45% → 54% +9DEN 45% → 54%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Nuggets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML TOR +160 / DEN -192
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 64.8%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -171
- TOR +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.0 – 117.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +55 | TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −61, Jakob Poeltl (40% to sit) −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +106 Elo | DEN 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 113.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 115.722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −2.319th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 112.711th of 30 |
| 7th of 30106.4 | Defense rating | 115.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Pace | 98.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
| 20th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 151215th of 30 |
| 12th of 301532 | Elo rating | 153311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | — | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–6 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.