Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DEN went from 57% to 61% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints28
- Jrue HolidayAssists10
- Donovan ClinganRebounds18
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–110
- Q41.7Deni Avdija makes running layup (Jrue Holiday assists)118–110
- Q49.7Jrue Holiday defensive rebound116–110
- Q49.7Nikola Jokic misses 26-foot three point jumper116–110
- Q412.1Nuggets offensive team rebound116–110
- Q412.1Jrue Holiday blocks Jamal Murray 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot116–110
- Q421.1Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Damian Lillard116–110
- Q421.1Scoot Henderson enters the game for Donovan Clingan116–110
- Q421.1DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Alpha Diallo116–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:49Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Youngblood assists)POR 94 – 89 DEN · POR 55% → 69% +14POR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q48:02Aaron Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)POR 97 – 94 DEN · DEN 26% → 39% +14DEN 26% → 39%+14 pts
- Q45:31Nikola Jokic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)POR 101 – 99 DEN · DEN 25% → 42% +17DEN 25% → 42%+17 pts
- Q41:18Jamal Murray makes 22-foot three pointer (Cameron Johnson assists)POR 110 – 107 DEN · DEN 3% → 18% +15DEN 3% → 18%+15 pts
- Q41:09Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 113 – 107 DEN · POR 83% → 98% +14POR 83% → 98%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Nuggets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML POR +146 / DEN -174
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 58.9%, market 61.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -156
- POR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.5 – 118.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | +43 | POR: Missing Ja Morant −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +63 Elo | DEN 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 61.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.6 | Points scored | 114.014th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 115.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+11.4 | Margin | −1.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 112.212th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.1 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.227th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 30 |
| 28th of 301444 | Opponent Elo | 150716th of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 154511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  POR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–42 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 28–34 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 44–43 | 53–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–9 DEN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Apr 6POR 132 @ DEN 137Picked DEN 71%Hit
- Mar 22POR 112 @ DEN 128Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Feb 20DEN 157 @ POR 103Picked DEN 53%Hit
- Oct 31DEN 107 @ POR 109Picked DEN 67%Miss
- Mar 21DEN 109 @ POR 128Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Feb 12POR 121 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Feb 10POR 117 @ DEN 146Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Dec 19DEN 124 @ POR 126Picked DEN 75%Miss