Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NY went from 85% to 88% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points16
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists4
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds5
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints23
- Tyler KolekAssists4
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game85–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter85–117
- Q420.7Gary Trent Jr. offensive foul turnover85–117
- Q420.7Gary Trent Jr. offensive charge85–117
- Q438.1Bogoljub Markovic defensive rebound85–117
- Q438.1Pacome Dadiet misses 26-foot three point jumper85–117
- Q41:00Jose Alvarado defensive rebound85–117
- Q41:00Kasparas Jakucionis misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot85–117
- Q41:15Dalton Knecht makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mohamed Diawara assists)85–117
- Q41:32Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound85–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:59Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 3 – 0 NY · MIL 12% → 16% +4MIL 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q17:54Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 8 – 6 NY · MIL 12% → 16% +4MIL 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q15:52Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 13 – 13 NY · MIL 10% → 14% +3MIL 10% → 14%+3 pts
- Q14:31Brayden Burries makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 16 – 15 NY · MIL 12% → 15% +4MIL 12% → 15%+4 pts
- Q13:31Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mohamed Diawara assists)MIL 16 – 18 NY · NY 84% → 88% +4NY 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Knicks 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -15.5
- ML MIL +700 / NY -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -12
- NY 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NY: Elo 87.8%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -733
- MIL +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 102.0 – 117.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −4 | MIL: Missing Tyler Herro (40% to sit) −12 · NY: Missing Josh Hart (40% to sit) −1 (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +343 Elo | NY 87.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 88.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 88.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 109.923rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.6 | Points allowed | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−13.2 | Margin | +5.710th of 30 |
| 25th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 111.715th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 105.97th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.2 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 30 |
| 9th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 148922nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301364 | Elo rating | 16543rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–7 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–7 NY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Feb 27NY 127 @ MIL 98Picked NY 72%Hit
- Nov 28MIL 109 @ NY 118Picked NY 70%Hit
- Oct 28NY 111 @ MIL 121Picked NY 55%Miss
- Mar 28NY 116 @ MIL 107Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jan 12MIL 106 @ NY 140Picked NY 62%Hit
- Nov 8MIL 94 @ NY 116Picked NY 69%Hit
- Apr 7NY 122 @ MIL 109Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Dec 25MIL 122 @ NY 129Picked MIL 58%Miss