Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIL went from 26% to 14% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Fri, Nov 6, 12:02 AM ESTJayson Tatum back · forecast MIL 20%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Paul GeorgePoints27
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds9
Bucks- Kyle KuzmaPoints27
- Myles TurnerAssists7
- Brayden BurriesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–97
- Q412.9Nate Ament lost ball turnover (Jordan Walsh steals)117–97
- Q434.7Ron Harper Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot117–97
- Q452.7Ousmane Dieng makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)115–97
- Q41:10AJ Green defensive rebound115–94
- Q41:10Luka Garza misses free throw 2 of 2115–94
- Q41:10Luka Garza makes free throw 1 of 2115–94
- Q41:10Nate Ament personal foul114–94
- Q41:24Nate Ament makes driving layup114–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:05Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)BOS 6 – 20 MIL · MIL 34% → 40% +6MIL 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q15:48Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three pointerBOS 13 – 20 MIL · BOS 67% → 73% +6BOS 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q14:45Tyler Herro makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 15 – 25 MIL · MIL 28% → 34% +6MIL 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q13:27Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotBOS 18 – 27 MIL · BOS 61% → 68% +6BOS 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q150.4Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 23 – 27 MIL · BOS 70% → 76% +6BOS 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Celtics 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML BOS -840 / MIL +580
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.4%, market 85.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -608
- MIL +608 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.5 – 104.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1623 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +12 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +186 Elo | BOS 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 82.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 81.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 85.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 109.723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.1 | Points allowed | 122.127th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.7 | Margin | −12.427th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 105.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 117.828th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.5 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 30 |
| 24th of 301471 | Opponent Elo | 150815th of 30 |
| 5th of 301623 | Elo rating | 137225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–3 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Nov 4MIL 102 @ BOS 109Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Apr 3BOS 133 @ MIL 101Picked BOS 93%Hit
- Mar 2BOS 108 @ MIL 81Picked BOS 55%Hit
- Feb 1MIL 79 @ BOS 107Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 11BOS 101 @ MIL 116Picked BOS 77%Miss
- Dec 6MIL 105 @ BOS 111Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 10BOS 113 @ MIL 107Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Oct 28MIL 108 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 77%Hit