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Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Heat

5-6

39%

at

Home

76ers

9-3

61%

The pick
PHI · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
114–117
Fair odds
-155

Your pick

Xfinity Mobile Arena · ESPN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 76ers at 61%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the 76ers rate higher (1511 to 1460 Elo), the 76ers have home court and lineup changes favor the 76ers.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Heat

Now 70%

72%

with a win

68%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

76ers

Now 90%

91%

with a win

88%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

76ers 61%

Lean
MIA 39%PHI 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHI 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI -4.5
PHI 67%
Fair odds
PHI -155
MIA +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MIA 113.6 – 116.9 PHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMIAPHIWhy
Team rating14601511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+28+63MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPHI +122 EloPHI 66.9%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 60.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 60.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers compared, with each team's league rank
MIAStatPHI
11th of 30115.7Points scored110.223rd of 30
26th of 30120.0Points allowed109.28th of 30
19th of 30−4.3Margin+1.016th of 30
19th of 30110.0Offense rating108.522nd of 30
24th of 30114.0Defense rating107.58th of 30
3rd of 30104.2Pace101.416th of 30
14th of 285–5Last 107–35th of 28
11th of 304–3Road vs home4–28th of 30
18th of 301494Opponent Elo15218th of 30
21st of 301460Elo rating151115th of 30
3rd of 30+2.5Offense, adjusted−1.022nd of 30
26th of 30−3.7Defense, adjusted+1.49th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Heat

+28 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Davion Mitchell3516.4Available
Bam Adebayo3324.0Available
Giannis Antetokounmpo3135.0Available
Pelle Larsson2816.9Available
Klay Thompson2615.9Available
Andrew Wiggins2417.4Available
Bobby Portis1818.9Available
Ryan Conwell1616.9Available
Keshad Johnson1020.4Available
Tim Hardaway Jr.816.4Available

76ers

+63 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Tyrese Maxey3424.4Available
VJ Edgecombe3217.2Available
Jaylen Brown3225.5Available
LeBron James3125.1Available
Joel Embiid2929.6Available
Dean Wade2115.3Available
Anfernee Simons1817.5Available
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope1813.8Available
Jabari Walker1215.6Available
Tacko Fall517.8Available
Adem Bona—14.8Out
Dominick Barlow—15.9Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Heat76ers
135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Heat

Nothing on the injury report.

76ers

3 listed

  • Adem Bona C

    Out

    Bona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Dominick Barlow F

    Out

    Head coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.

  • Ariel Hukporti C

    Out

    Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMIAPHI
Against the spread2–96–5
Last 102–85–5
Favorite1–63–4
Underdog1–33–1
Overs–unders4–75–6
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIA 8–3 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.