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Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast

FinalNBC

Away

Celtics

9-2

123–101

at

Home

76ers

9-3

BOS 53%PHI 47%

You didn't pick this one.

Xfinity Mobile Arena · NBC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.

PHI favored BOS favored110 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4PHI50%BOS

How the forecast moved

PHI went from 43% to 47% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 7:49 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (PHI win chance) Betting line, margin removed
35%45%55%Sat 9 PMMon 8 AMTue 8 PM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Celtics
76ers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game123–101
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–101
  • Q422.1Anfernee Simons makes 28-foot three pointer (Labaron Philon Jr. assists)123–101
  • Q427.9Hugo Gonzalez makes 1-foot driving dunk123–98
  • Q429.7Labaron Philon Jr. lost ball turnover (Hugo Gonzalez steals)121–98
  • Q434.8Hugo Gonzalez makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)121–98
  • Q438.9Jabari Walker lost ball turnover (Hugo Gonzalez steals)118–98
  • Q444.9Jabari Walker defensive rebound118–98
  • Q444.9Luka Garza misses 25-foot three point jumper118–98
  • Q454.7Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Labaron Philon Jr. assists)118–98

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q34:02Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)BOS 76 – 76 PHI · PHI 38% → 49% +11
  2. Q33:43Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 79 – 76 PHI · BOS 51% → 62% +11
  3. Q33:19Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointer (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)BOS 79 – 79 PHI · PHI 38% → 49% +11
  4. Q33:02Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three pointer (Mitchell Robinson assists)BOS 82 – 79 PHI · BOS 51% → 62% +11
  5. Q32:24Sam Hauser makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 85 – 79 PHI · BOS 63% → 73% +10

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Celtics 53%

Toss-upHit
BOS 53%PHI 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.

Market
BOS -1.5
ML BOS -121 / PHI +102
Pre-line forecast
BOS 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI -1
BOS 46%
Ratings vs. market
−6.3 pts
BOS: Elo 46.2%, market 52.5%
Fair odds
BOS -111
PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
ESPN's forecast
BOS 48%
Their last number before the game. Head-to-head
Pregame projection
BOS 110.0 – 108.5 PHI
Posted spread, posted total 218.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSPHIWhy
Team rating16301531Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−13+77BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12−12BOS crossed 1 time zone and PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsPHI +27 EloPHI 53.8%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 56.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 55.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 52.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatPHI
13th of 30115.0Points scored111.021st of 30
3rd of 30104.3Points allowed107.98th of 30
3rd of 30+10.7Margin+3.114th of 30
5th of 30116.5Offense rating108.921st of 30
6th of 30105.7Defense rating105.87th of 30
29th of 3097.8Pace101.811th of 30
9th of 303–2Road vs home4–16th of 30
28th of 301463Opponent Elo151014th of 30
5th of 301630Elo rating153112th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Celtics

−14 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

76ers

+80 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Celtics76ers
13501450155016501750league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSPHI
Against the spread4–56–4
Last 104–56–4
Favorite4–43–4
Underdog0–13–0
Overs–unders4–54–6
Overs–unders, last 104–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 11–8 PHI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.