Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHI went from 22% to 22% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTNorman Powell out · forecast CHI 21%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Jabari WalkerRebounds11
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints19
- Josh GiddeyAssists15
- Jalen SmithRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–121
- Q410.5LeBron James defensive rebound127–121
- Q410.5Matas Buzelis misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot127–121
- Q413.4Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Isaac Okoro127–121
- Q413.4Bulls Full timeout127–121
- Q413.4Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2127–121
- Q413.4Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2126–121
- Q413.4Josh Giddey personal take foul125–121
- Q416.5Jaylen Brown defensive rebound125–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:47Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 22-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 116 – 110 CHI · PHI 77% → 89% +12PHI 77% → 89%+12 pts
- Q43:31Caleb Wilson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)PHI 116 – 113 CHI · CHI 9% → 22% +13CHI 9% → 22%+13 pts
- Q43:05Joel Embiid makes 10-foot turnaround jump shotPHI 118 – 113 CHI · PHI 79% → 89% +10PHI 79% → 89%+10 pts
- Q43:00Isaac Okoro makes driving layup (Josh Giddey assists)PHI 118 – 115 CHI · CHI 11% → 21% +10CHI 11% → 21%+10 pts
- Q42:13Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (LeBron James assists)PHI 123 – 116 CHI · PHI 87% → 97% +10PHI 87% → 97%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
76ers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -9.5
- ML PHI -423 / CHI +331
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -8.5
- PHI 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 79.9%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -349
- CHI +349 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 124.0 – 114.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +77 | −45 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Norman Powell −24, Zach Collins −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +240 Elo | PHI 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.4 | Points scored | 111.618th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.6 | Points allowed | 129.630th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −18.030th of 30 |
| 21st of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 103.728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Defense rating | 120.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.1 | Pace | 107.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 304–1 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 15405th of 30 |
| 14th of 301528 | Elo rating | 137425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–6 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Nov 2CHI 107 @ PHI 126Picked PHI 81%Hit
- Mar 25CHI 137 @ PHI 157Picked PHI 68%Hit
- Dec 26PHI 102 @ CHI 109Picked PHI 53%Miss
- Nov 4PHI 111 @ CHI 113Picked CHI 54%Hit
- Apr 13CHI 122 @ PHI 102Picked CHI 73%Hit
- Feb 24CHI 142 @ PHI 110Picked PHI 68%Miss
- Jan 25PHI 109 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 58%Miss
- Dec 8PHI 108 @ CHI 100Picked PHI 57%Hit