Houston Rockets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rockets at 55%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Rockets rate higher (1604 to 1460 Elo), the Rockets are on a back-to-back and the Heat have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Rockets
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Heat
Now 70%
72%
with a win
67%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Rockets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Fair odds
- HOU -120
- MIA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- HOU 114.8 – 113.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | +28 | HOU: Missing Steven Adams −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +56 Elo | HOU 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 115.711th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.4 | Points allowed | 120.026th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+9.1 | Margin | −4.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 110.019th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 114.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.0 | Pace | 104.23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 287–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 28 |
| 10th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301544 | Opponent Elo | 149418th of 30 |
| 8th of 301604 | Elo rating | 146021st of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Offense, adjusted | +2.53rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.6 | Defense, adjusted | −3.726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Rockets
+16 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 35 | 18.6 | Available |
| Alperen Sengun | 33 | 25.7 | Available |
| Kevin Durant | 33 | 25.9 | Available |
| Amen Thompson | 32 | 22.5 | Available |
| Fred VanVleet | 29 | 19.7 | Available |
| Tari Eason | 22 | 19.1 | Available |
| Marcus Smart | 19 | 16.1 | Available |
| Reed Sheppard | 19 | 18.7 | Available |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 8 | 17.0 | Available |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 5 | 20.0 | Available |
| Steven Adams | — | 20.9 | Out−1 |
| Clint Capela | — | 20.5 | Out |
Heat
+28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 35 | 16.4 | Available |
| Bam Adebayo | 33 | 24.0 | Available |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | 35.0 | Available |
| Pelle Larsson | 28 | 16.9 | Available |
| Klay Thompson | 26 | 15.9 | Available |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 17.4 | Available |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Ryan Conwell | 16 | 16.9 | Available |
| Keshad Johnson | 10 | 20.4 | Available |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8 | 16.4 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Rockets
2 listedClint Capela C
OutHead coach Ime Udoka stated Monday that Capela (ankle) could be cleared to return either Nov. 15 in Washington or Nov. 16 in Miami, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.
Steven Adams C
OutHead coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday's game at Washington, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.
Heat
Nothing on the injury report.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–2 | 2–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.