Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
HOU went from 60% to 74% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 2:48 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints38
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints23
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Kevin DurantRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–110
- Q417.9Bryce Hopkins makes 8-foot two point shot100–110
- Q432.5Spencer Jones enters the game for Aaron Gordon98–110
- Q432.5Bryce Hopkins enters the game for Cameron Johnson98–110
- Q432.5DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Nikola Jokic98–110
- Q432.5Alpha Diallo enters the game for Jamal Murray98–110
- Q432.5Trevon Brazile enters the game for Christian Braun98–110
- Q432.5Bruce Thornton enters the game for Fred VanVleet98–110
- Q432.5Isaiah Crawford enters the game for Alperen Sengun98–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:56Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)DEN 62 – 69 HOU · HOU 77% → 84% +8HOU 77% → 84%+8 pts
- Q47:44Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 83 – 91 HOU · HOU 82% → 90% +9HOU 82% → 90%+9 pts
- Q46:49Jamal Murray makes 15-foot fade away jump shotDEN 87 – 91 HOU · DEN 14% → 21% +7DEN 14% → 21%+7 pts
- Q46:27Alperen Sengun makes two point shotDEN 87 – 93 HOU · HOU 79% → 86% +7HOU 79% → 86%+7 pts
- Q45:34Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumperDEN 87 – 96 HOU · HOU 87% → 94% +7HOU 87% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML DEN +263 / HOU -327
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 68.9%, market 73.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -278
- DEN +278 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 104.5 – 113.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −54 | +14 | DEN: Missing Nikola Jokic (40% to sit) −51, Jamal Murray (40% to sit) −23, Aaron Gordon (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +138 Elo | HOU 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 73.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 116.011th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 107.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +9.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 116.72nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 107.68th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 99.426th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15432nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301550 | Elo rating | 15968th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–5 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Mar 11HOU 93 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 70%Hit
- Dec 20HOU 115 @ DEN 101Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Dec 15HOU 125 @ DEN 128Picked HOU 51%Miss
- Nov 21DEN 112 @ HOU 109Picked HOU 57%Miss
- Apr 13DEN 126 @ HOU 111Picked DEN 68%Hit
- Mar 23DEN 116 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 72%Miss
- Jan 15HOU 128 @ DEN 108Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Dec 8HOU 114 @ DEN 106Picked DEN 65%Miss