Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
IND went from 20% to 26% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Wed, Nov 4, 11:31 PM ESTIvica Zubac back, Obi Toppin back · forecast IND 24%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints19
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–102
- Q48.1shot clock turnover114–102
- Q434.8Christian Braun defensive rebound114–102
- Q434.8Pascal Siakam misses 25-foot three point jumper114–102
- Q438.9Spencer Jones enters the game for Jamal Murray114–102
- Q438.9Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2114–102
- Q438.9Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2113–102
- Q438.9Andrew Nembhard personal foul112–102
- Q41:01Christian Braun defensive rebound112–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:24Pascal Siakam makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 0 – 3 IND · IND 26% → 31% +5IND 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q210:39Cameron Johnson makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Trevon Brazile assists)DEN 34 – 25 IND · DEN 82% → 87% +4DEN 82% → 87%+4 pts
- Q210:26Larry Nance Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)DEN 34 – 28 IND · IND 13% → 18% +4IND 13% → 18%+4 pts
- Q47:26Jarace Walker makes 23-foot running jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)DEN 102 – 95 IND · IND 6% → 12% +6IND 6% → 12%+6 pts
- Q46:34Spencer Jones makes layup (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 104 – 95 IND · DEN 89% → 93% +4DEN 89% → 93%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6.5
- DEN 73%
- Fair odds
- DEN -290
- IND +290 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.4 – 111.3 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +45 | +21 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −48, T.J. McConnell −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +176 Elo | DEN 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 74.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 111.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 114.217th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −3.020th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 108.521st of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 111.418th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.6 | Pace | 102.211th of 30 |
| 12th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 143430th of 30 |
| 10th of 301543 | Elo rating | 139124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–1 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.