Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
IND went from 35% to 33% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints34
- CJ McCollumAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Pacers- Jay HuffPoints22
- Braden SmithAssists10
- Jay HuffRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–104
- Q43.8CJ McCollum defensive rebound108–104
- Q43.8Jay Huff misses 25-foot three point jumper108–104
- Q48.4(00:08.4) [Hawks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)108–104
- Q410.2Onyeka Okongwu makes 12-foot two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)108–104
- Q412.9Hawks Full timeout106–104
- Q412.9Hawks offensive team rebound106–104
- Q412.9Jay Huff blocks Nickeil Alexander-Walker 's 3-foot driving layup106–104
- Q427.2Dyson Daniels offensive rebound106–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:19Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)ATL 92 – 84 IND · ATL 83% → 91% +8ATL 83% → 91%+8 pts
- Q47:19Onyeka Okongwu makes layupATL 95 – 90 IND · ATL 76% → 84% +7ATL 76% → 84%+7 pts
- Q46:29Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 98 – 90 IND · ATL 84% → 92% +8ATL 84% → 92%+8 pts
- Q42:10CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2ATL 105 – 102 IND · ATL 75% → 82% +7ATL 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q41:23Quenton Jackson makes 2-foot running dunkATL 106 – 104 IND · IND 9% → 23% +14IND 9% → 23%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -10.5
- ML ATL -467 / IND +360
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4
- ATL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 65.9%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -379
- IND +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 118.5 – 108.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −45 | −45 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −50, Ivica Zubac −33, Andrew Nembhard −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +115 Elo | ATL 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 112.918th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 116.723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −3.921st of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 110.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.6 | Pace | 101.914th of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 30 |
| 10th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 142829th of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 138425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−45 Elo- Pascal Siakam rest−50 Elo
- Ivica Zubac left ankle sprain−33 Elo
- Andrew Nembhard cervical strain−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–6 IND in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 31ATL 124 @ IND 129Picked ATL 53%Miss
- Jan 26IND 116 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Oct 31ATL 128 @ IND 108Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Mar 8IND 118 @ ATL 120Picked IND 51%Miss
- Mar 6IND 118 @ ATL 124Picked ATL 56%Hit
- Feb 1ATL 127 @ IND 132Picked IND 77%Hit
- Apr 14ATL 115 @ IND 157Picked IND 70%Hit
- Jan 12IND 126 @ ATL 108Picked ATL 51%Miss