Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MEM went from 77% to 69% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Mon, Nov 2, 9:59 PM ESTAndrew Nembhard back · forecast MEM 78%
Tue, Nov 3, 1:05 PM ESTPascal Siakam back · forecast MEM 76%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints22
- Braden SmithAssists5
- Jarace WalkerRebounds8
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints23
- Cam SpencerAssists9
- Zach EdeyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–103
- Q42.2Zach Edey offensive rebound107–103
- Q42.2Cedric Coward misses 26-foot three point jumper107–103
- Q48.2Zach Edey offensive rebound107–103
- Q48.2Cedric Coward misses 28-foot running jump shot107–103
- Q413.8Cameron Boozer defensive rebound107–103
- Q413.8Aaron Nesmith misses free throw 1 of 1107–103
- Q413.8Cam Spencer shooting foul107–103
- Q414.6Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)107–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:34Kris Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cameron Boozer assists)IND 86 – 87 MEM · MEM 47% → 63% +15MEM 47% → 63%+15 pts
- Q43:47Quenton Jackson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 97 – 93 MEM · IND 52% → 73% +21IND 52% → 73%+21 pts
- Q42:55Larry Nance Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 99 – 95 MEM · IND 62% → 76% +15IND 62% → 76%+15 pts
- Q428.2Ty Jerome makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Zach Edey assists)IND 104 – 103 MEM · MEM 6% → 32% +25MEM 6% → 32%+25 pts
- Q414.6Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 107 – 103 MEM · IND 76% → >99% +24IND 76% → >99%+24 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Grizzlies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -6.5
- ML IND +212 / MEM -258
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -7.5
- MEM 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 77.4%, market 69.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -225
- IND +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.0 – 118.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +78 | IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −58, T.J. McConnell −17, Ivica Zubac −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +214 Elo | MEM 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 69.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 123.01st of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 110.112th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.9 | Margin | +12.92nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 119.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 106.67th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.1 | Pace | 101.715th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
| 29th of 301440 | Opponent Elo | 141330th of 30 |
| 25th of 301380 | Elo rating | 146320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–4 MEM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.