Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHX went from 33% to 34% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints21
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints24
- Miles BridgesAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–102
- Q40.0(00:00) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)99–102
- Q410.6Miles Bridges defensive rebound99–102
- Q410.6Kevin Durant misses 26-foot three point jumper99–102
- Q423.9Alperen Sengun defensive rebound99–102
- Q423.9Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point jumper99–102
- Q446.7Kevin Durant makes 16-foot jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)99–102
- Q41:01Dillon Brooks personal foul97–102
- Q41:05Alperen Sengun defensive rebound97–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:51Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 82 – 82 PHX · HOU 43% → 57% +14HOU 43% → 57%+14 pts
- Q47:06Alperen Sengun makes 26-foot three point jumperHOU 89 – 89 PHX · HOU 40% → 56% +16HOU 40% → 56%+16 pts
- Q46:42Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 89 – 92 PHX · PHX 44% → 60% +17PHX 44% → 60%+17 pts
- Q43:48Devin Booker makes 10-foot step back jumpshotHOU 95 – 97 PHX · PHX 45% → 60% +15PHX 45% → 60%+15 pts
- Q43:13Devin Booker makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Oso Ighodaro assists)HOU 95 – 100 PHX · PHX 62% → 82% +20PHX 62% → 82%+20 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Rockets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Fair odds
- HOU -193
- PHX +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.7 – 109.8 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −4 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +109 Elo | HOU 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 113.915th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 121.426th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.3 | Margin | −7.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 119.728th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.120th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Opponent Elo | 15453rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301604 | Elo rating | 147817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–2 PHX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Apr 7HOU 119 @ PHX 105Picked HOU 52%Hit
- Jan 5PHX 97 @ HOU 100Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Dec 5PHX 98 @ HOU 117Picked HOU 76%Hit
- Nov 24HOU 114 @ PHX 92Picked HOU 69%Hit
- Mar 30HOU 148 @ PHX 109Picked HOU 57%Hit
- Mar 12PHX 104 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 61%Hit
- Feb 12PHX 111 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 77%Hit
- Mar 2HOU 118 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 73%Miss