Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHX went from 50% to 53% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Thursday, November 5 at 12:15 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Wendell Carter Jr.Points27
- Franz WagnerAssists15
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds13
Suns- Devin BookerPoints30
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–117
- Q40.2shot clock turnover104–117
- Q425.4Koa Peat defensive rebound104–117
- Q425.4Jamal Cain misses 25-foot three point jumper104–117
- Q440.1Pat Spencer lost ball turnover (Alex Morales steals)104–117
- Q41:04Goga Bitadze makes 1-foot running dunk (Jase Richardson assists)104–117
- Q41:09Jamaree Bouyea lost ball turnover (Jase Richardson steals)102–117
- Q41:20Jase Richardson makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Colin Castleton assists)102–117
- Q41:36Pat Spencer out of bounds lost ball turnover100–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:30Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)ORL 14 – 13 PHX · PHX 44% → 50% +7PHX 44% → 50%+7 pts
- Q13:21Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Ryan Dunn assists)ORL 19 – 26 PHX · PHX 61% → 68% +6PHX 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q27:06Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)ORL 35 – 44 PHX · PHX 67% → 74% +7PHX 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q25:01Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)ORL 39 – 49 PHX · PHX 70% → 76% +7PHX 70% → 76%+7 pts
- Q23:40Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 46 – 54 PHX · ORL 21% → 28% +6ORL 21% → 28%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Suns 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML ORL +102 / PHX -121
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- PHX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 52.0%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- PHX -111
- ORL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.5 – 113.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −43 | −7 | ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −30, Jalen Suggs −2, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +14 Elo | PHX 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.7 | Points scored | 113.315th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 124.329th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−9.0 | Margin | −11.025th of 30 |
| 25th of 30105.6 | Offense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 122.530th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Opponent Elo | 15491st of 30 |
| 17th of 301484 | Elo rating | 146619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 0–6 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 0–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–2 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.