Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ORL went from 60% to 60% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Anthony DavisPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds9
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints24
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–94
- Q424.6Kyshawn George defensive rebound103–94
- Q424.6Franz Wagner misses 27-foot three point shot103–94
- Q438.3AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 2 of 2103–94
- Q438.3AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 1 of 2102–94
- Q438.3Tristan da Silva personal take foul101–94
- Q442.4Desmond Bane personal take foul101–94
- Q450.2Jase Richardson makes driving layup101–94
- Q455.1Trae Young out of bounds lost ball turnover101–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:51Tristan da Silva makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)WSH 71 – 68 ORL · ORL 34% → 44% +10ORL 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q49:22Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 81 – 76 ORL · ORL 20% → 31% +11ORL 20% → 31%+11 pts
- Q47:57Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)WSH 83 – 79 ORL · ORL 21% → 33% +13ORL 21% → 33%+13 pts
- Q46:56Kyshawn George makes 13-foot jumper (AJ Dybantsa assists)WSH 87 – 82 ORL · WSH 63% → 73% +10WSH 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q46:26Anthony Davis makes 7-foot pullup jump shotWSH 89 – 84 ORL · WSH 64% → 74% +10WSH 64% → 74%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML WSH +130 / ORL -154
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 52.0%, market 58.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -139
- WSH +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 111.0 – 113.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1348 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +100 | −28 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +14 Elo | ORL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 58.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 107.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 116.722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −9.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 106.324th of 30 |
| 12th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 115.126th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.518th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 15701st of 30 |
| 28th of 301348 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  WSH |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–49 | 42–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 31–46 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 47–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–11 ORL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.
- Mar 12WSH 131 @ ORL 136Picked ORL 87%Hit
- Mar 3WSH 109 @ ORL 126Picked ORL 89%Hit
- Jan 6ORL 112 @ WSH 120Picked ORL 71%Miss
- Nov 1ORL 125 @ WSH 94Picked ORL 76%Hit
- Apr 3ORL 109 @ WSH 97Picked ORL 90%Hit
- Mar 21ORL 120 @ WSH 105Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Feb 23WSH 90 @ ORL 110Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 10WSH 94 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 83%Hit