Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHX went from 45% to 42% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 10:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Damian LillardPoints25
- Deni AvdijaAssists12
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints33
- Oso IghodaroAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–119
- Q49.2Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 2 of 2132–119
- Q49.2Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 1 of 2131–119
- Q49.2Jamaree Bouyea personal foul130–119
- Q49.3Koa Peat makes free throw 2 of 2130–119
- Q49.3Koa Peat makes free throw 1 of 2130–118
- Q49.3Chris Youngblood shooting foul130–117
- Q415.2Koa Peat offensive rebound130–117
- Q415.2Pat Spencer misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot130–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:05Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 19 – 21 PHX · POR 47% → 53% +7POR 47% → 53%+7 pts
- Q210:59Damian Lillard makes 26-foot running jump shot (Sidy Cissoko assists)POR 33 – 34 PHX · POR 47% → 55% +7POR 47% → 55%+7 pts
- Q210:03Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three pointer (Oso Ighodaro assists)POR 35 – 39 PHX · PHX 45% → 53% +7PHX 45% → 53%+7 pts
- Q29:06Vit Krejci makes 27-foot running jump shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR 43 – 39 PHX · POR 59% → 66% +7POR 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q28:34Donovan Clingan makes 25-foot three point jumperPOR 46 – 41 PHX · POR 62% → 69% +7POR 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Trail Blazers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML POR -155 / PHX +130
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- POR: Elo 61.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- POR -140
- PHX +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 115.5 – 112.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +57 | −5 | POR: Missing Ja Morant −26 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +80 Elo | POR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.2 | Points scored | 112.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 122.827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.8 | Margin | −10.625th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 111.214th of 30 |
| 8th of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 121.730th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.719th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Opponent Elo | 15502nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301518 | Elo rating | 147519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 0–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 0–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 0–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 5–7 PHX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Oct 21PHX 83 @ POR 124Picked POR 60%Hit
- Feb 22POR 92 @ PHX 77Picked POR 59%Hit
- Feb 3PHX 130 @ POR 125Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Nov 18PHX 127 @ POR 110Picked POR 53%Miss
- Feb 3PHX 119 @ POR 121Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Feb 1PHX 108 @ POR 127Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Dec 15POR 109 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 83%Hit
- Nov 2POR 97 @ PHX 103Picked PHX 86%Hit