Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Thunder 52%). It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Thunder rate higher (1657 to 1460 Elo), lineup changes favor the Heat and the Heat have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Thunder
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Heat
Now 70%
72%
with a win
67%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Thunder 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1.5
- OKC 56%
- Fair odds
- OKC -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- OKC 114.7 – 114.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1657 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −80 | +28 | OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −39, Jalen Williams −31, Jaylin Williams −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +41 Elo | OKC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 115.711th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 120.026th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+5.5 | Margin | −4.319th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 110.019th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.1 | Defense rating | 114.024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.6 | Pace | 104.23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 287–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 28 |
| 12th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301657 | Elo rating | 146021st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.6 | Offense, adjusted | +2.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+4.7 | Defense, adjusted | −3.726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Thunder
−80 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 36.4 | Available |
| Ajay Mitchell | 28 | 24.4 | Available |
| Jared McCain | 27 | 17.9 | Available |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 24 | 23.7 | Available |
| Aday Mara | 23 | 18.6 | Available |
| Bennett Stirtz | 21 | 17.9 | Available |
| Kenrich Williams | 21 | 17.8 | Available |
| Micah Peavy | 20 | 12.8 | Available |
| Alex Caruso | 18 | 22.1 | Available |
| Josh Dix | 13 | 16.4 | Available |
| Nique Clifford | 10 | 11.9 | Available |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 5 | 13.5 | Available |
Heat
+28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 35 | 16.4 | Available |
| Bam Adebayo | 33 | 24.0 | Available |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | 35.0 | Available |
| Pelle Larsson | 28 | 16.9 | Available |
| Klay Thompson | 26 | 15.9 | Available |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 17.4 | Available |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Ryan Conwell | 16 | 16.9 | Available |
| Keshad Johnson | 10 | 20.4 | Available |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8 | 16.4 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Thunder
5 listedJaylin Williams F
OutWilliams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.
Thomas Sorber C
OutSorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.
Cason Wallace G
OutWallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Chet Holmgren C
OutHolmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.
Jalen Williams G
OutWilliams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.
Heat
Nothing on the injury report.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 2–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–1 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.