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Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast

Live4:09 - 3rdNBC, KSBI, Thunder App

Away

Thunder

8-2

19%

73–83

at

Home

Trail Blazers

6-3

81%

Live win probability

You didn't pick this one.

Moda Center · NBC, KSBI, Thunder App

Win probability

Updating as the game goes. Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.

POR favored OKC favored85 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4POR50%OKC

How the forecast moved

POR went from 46% to 48% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (POR win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
35%45%55%Sat 9 PMMon 10 AMTue 11 PM

Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTRobert Williams III back · forecast POR 44%

Game center

Live from the ESPN feed, updating with the page.

Top performers

Trail Blazers

Latest plays

  • Q34:31Damian Lillard defensive rebound73–81
  • Q34:31Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 26-foot three point jumper73–81
  • Q34:45Jrue Holiday makes driving layup73–81
  • Q35:05Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 16-foot pullup jump shot73–79
  • Q35:19Alex Caruso enters the game for Ajay Mitchell71–79
  • Q35:19Bennett Stirtz enters the game for Jared McCain71–79
  • Q35:19Chris Youngblood enters the game for Deni Avdija71–79
  • Q35:19Thunder Full timeout71–79
  • Q35:21Damian Lillard makes 28-foot three point jumper71–79
  • Q35:31Robert Williams III offensive rebound71–76

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most so far, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q311:32Sidy Cissoko makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)OKC 59 – 62 POR · POR 49% → 58% +9
  2. Q39:23Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)OKC 64 – 67 POR · POR 49% → 58% +9
  3. Q38:14Jared McCain makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 69 – 67 POR · OKC 48% → 58% +10
  4. Q37:29Damian Lillard makes 30-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)OKC 69 – 70 POR · POR 42% → 52% +10
  5. Q35:21Damian Lillard makes 28-foot three point jumperOKC 71 – 79 POR · POR 66% → 75% +9

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Thunder 52%

Toss-up
OKC 52%POR 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.

Market
OKC -1.5
ML OKC -118 / POR -101
Pre-line forecast
OKC 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -0.5
OKC 53%
Ratings vs. market
+0.7 pts
OKC: Elo 52.6%, market 51.9%
Fair odds
OKC -108
POR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
ESPN's forecast
OKC 60%
Their last number before the game. Head-to-head
Pregame projection
OKC 114.0 – 112.5 POR
Posted spread, posted total 226.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOKCPORWhy
Team rating16741506Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−69+46OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −38, Jalen Williams −30 · POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsOKC +18 EloOKC 52.6%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 55.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 55.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastOKC 51.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers compared, with each team's league rank
OKCStatPOR
19th of 30112.2Points scored119.33rd of 30
3rd of 30104.2Points allowed113.816th of 30
8th of 30+8.0Margin+5.611th of 30
18th of 30111.1Offense rating116.46th of 30
1st of 30103.1Defense rating111.014th of 30
20th of 30100.9Pace102.46th of 30
10th of 303–2Road vs home1–222nd of 30
13th of 301513Opponent Elo150516th of 30
1st of 301674Elo rating150615th of 30
11th of 30+1.0Offense, adjusted+1.110th of 30
3rd of 30+5.2Defense, adjusted+0.910th of 30

Player props

Projected from minutes and per-minute production, next to DraftKings lines. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 118,175 graded NBA lines (log loss 0.682 vs our model's 0.708). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 51% and returned −3.4% a bet over 23,670 graded lines. Not betting advice.

Your parlay →

Live · 4:16 - 3rd. Each stat so far from ESPN's box score, and the chance its over hits from here: the pregame line and chance, the time left, the pace so far and the score, the model tracked parlays use. Updates with the page.

PlayerProjLineOverNow
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.933.5up from 32.546%model: under2454% over
Deni AvdijaPOR21.122.5up from 21.547%1542% over
Damian LillardPOR17.619.547%22over hit
Ajay MitchellOKC16.019.547%model: under1450% over
Jared McCainOKC13.612.549%16over hit
Jrue HolidayPOR12.712.552%517% over
Scoot HendersonPOR11.09.5down from 10.548%314% over
Donovan ClinganPOR10.911.5up from 10.546%518% over
Toumani CamaraPOR10.912.5up from 11.551%model: under1062% over
Bennett StirtzOKC9.66.5down from 7.553%325% over
Aday MaraOKC9.28.5down from 9.546%642% over
Kenrich WilliamsOKC8.97.5down from 8.549%07% over
Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.29.5up from 7.547%model: under747% over
Alex CarusoOKC7.66.5up from 5.552%325% over
Robert Williams IIIPOR6.65.551%444% over
Micah PeavyOKC5.7——0
Chris YoungbloodPOR5.0——8
Sidy CissokoPOR4.96.5up from 4.547%model: under9over hit
Josh DixOKC2.7——not in yet

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Thunder

−69 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander3236.6Available
Ajay Mitchell2824.7Available
Jared McCain2618.0Available
Isaiah Hartenstein2423.8Available
Bennett Stirtz2217.7Available
Aday Mara2218.9Available
Kenrich Williams2218.1Available
Micah Peavy2013.2Available
Alex Caruso1922.3Available
Josh Dix1316.4Available
Nique Clifford812.0Available
Brooks Barnhizer613.4Available

Trail Blazers

+46 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Deni Avdija3222.9Available
Damian Lillard2825.4Available
Toumani Camara2714.9Available
Jrue Holiday2620.6Available
Donovan Clingan2521.7Available
Scoot Henderson2314.7Available
Sidy Cissoko1912.7Available
Robert Williams III1622.8Available
Chris Youngblood1217.1Available
Yang Hansen913.2Available
Branden Carlson718.8Available
Micah Potter715.8Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ThunderTrail Blazers
14001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Thunder

5 listed

  • Jaylin Williams F

    Out

    Williams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.

  • Thomas Sorber C

    Out

    Sorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.

  • Cason Wallace G

    Out

    Wallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.

  • Chet Holmgren C

    Out

    Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.

  • Jalen Williams G

    Out

    Williams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.

Trail Blazers

3 listed

  • Ja Morant G

    Out

    Head coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.

  • Vit Krejci G

    Out

    Head coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Shaedon Sharpe G

    Out

    Sharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonOKCPOR
Against the spread6–25–3
Last 106–25–3
Favorite4–13–1
Underdog2–12–2
Overs–unders2–64–4
Overs–unders, last 102–64–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

OKC 11–1 POR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.