San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
POR went from 41% to 34% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTRobert Williams III out · forecast POR 34%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints15
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Yang HansenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–103
- Q411.2Yang Hansen makes free throw 2 of 2125–103
- Q411.2Yang Hansen makes free throw 1 of 2125–102
- Q411.2Tarris Reed Jr. shooting foul125–101
- Q427.3Yang Hansen defensive rebound125–101
- Q427.3Harrison Barnes misses 23-foot three point jumper125–101
- Q437.6shot clock turnover125–101
- Q41:01Tarris Reed Jr. traveling turnover125–101
- Q41:17Yang Hansen makes driving layup125–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12.5Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)SA 22 – 20 POR · POR 26% → 32% +6POR 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q210:21Carter Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 25 – 20 POR · SA 68% → 74% +6SA 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q28:24Carter Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 33 – 27 POR · SA 70% → 76% +6SA 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q26:03Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 38 – 31 POR · SA 72% → 78% +6SA 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q25:12Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 41 – 33 POR · SA 74% → 80% +6SA 74% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Spurs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML SA -217 / POR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1.5
- SA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- SA: Elo 56.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -192
- POR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 117.0 – 111.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | +49 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Ja Morant −33, Robert Williams III −16, Shaedon Sharpe −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +44 Elo | SA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 121.42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.7 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.0 | Margin | +9.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 118.82nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30106.3 | Defense rating | 110.013th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.111th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 30 |
| 26th of 301463 | Opponent Elo | 148021st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301644 | Elo rating | 152015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–6 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 11–4 POR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.
- Apr 28POR 95 @ SA 114PlayoffsPicked SA 82%Hit
- Apr 26SA 114 @ POR 93PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Hit
- Apr 24SA 120 @ POR 108PlayoffsPicked SA 53%Hit
- Apr 21POR 106 @ SA 103PlayoffsPicked SA 83%Miss
- Apr 19POR 98 @ SA 111PlayoffsPicked SA 84%Hit
- Apr 8POR 101 @ SA 112Picked SA 58%Hit
- Jan 3POR 115 @ SA 110Picked SA 73%Miss
- Nov 26SA 115 @ POR 102Picked SA 52%Hit