Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAL went from 57% to 55% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints22
- Deni AvdijaAssists11
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints53
- Luka DoncicAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–124
- Q40.7Lakers offensive team rebound118–124
- Q40.7Ziaire Williams misses heave jump shot118–124
- Q42.0Toumani Camara bad pass
turnover (Ziaire Williams steals)118–124
- Q42.9Adou Thiero enters the game for Luka Doncic118–124
- Q42.9Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2118–124
- Q42.9Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2118–123
- Q42.9Donovan Clingan personal take foul118–122
- Q44.8Deni Avdija makes driving layup118–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:21Toumani Camara makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)POR 68 – 61 LAL · POR 60% → 69% +9POR 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q34:47Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 68 – 68 LAL · LAL 43% → 53% +10LAL 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q34:23Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)POR 68 – 71 LAL · LAL 53% → 64% +10LAL 53% → 64%+10 pts
- Q47:20Damian Lillard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 89 – 95 LAL · POR 11% → 20% +9POR 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q46:00Jake LaRavia makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)POR 91 – 100 LAL · LAL 82% → 92% +9LAL 82% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML POR +115 / LAL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 57.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -124
- POR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 115.5 – 118.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +11 | POR: Missing Ja Morant −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Missing Sandro Mamukelashvili (40% to sit) −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +51 Elo | LAL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.9 | Points scored | 121.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 113.917th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | +7.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.4 | Offense rating | 119.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 111.519th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 102.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–0 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301459 | Opponent Elo | 147225th of 30 |
| 15th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15978th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–1 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–7 LAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Oct 27POR 136 @ LAL 129Picked LAL 52%Miss
- Jan 17LAL 116 @ POR 132Picked POR 58%Hit
- Nov 3LAL 123 @ POR 115Picked POR 76%Miss
- Oct 27POR 122 @ LAL 108Picked POR 57%Hit
- Apr 13LAL 81 @ POR 109Picked POR 65%Hit
- Feb 20LAL 110 @ POR 102Picked LAL 53%Hit
- Jan 2POR 106 @ LAL 114Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Dec 8POR 98 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 72%Hit