Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MEM went from 42% to 42% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 10:03 PM ESTAlex Caruso back · forecast MEM 39%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Ajay MitchellPoints35
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists7
- Aday MaraRebounds7
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints21
- Ty JeromeAssists5
- Cameron BoozerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–97
- Q40.4shot clock turnover128–97
- Q424.4Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 3-foot two point shot (Jahmai Mashack assists)128–97
- Q440.3Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound128–95
- Q440.3Micah Peavy misses 23-foot three point jumper128–95
- Q455.5Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)128–95
- Q41:05Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound128–92
- Q41:05Micah Peavy misses 11-foot step back jumpshot128–92
- Q41:21Micah Peavy defensive rebound128–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:30Ajay Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 15 – 16 MEM · OKC 48% → 55% +7OKC 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q14:52Jared McCain makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 18 – 16 MEM · OKC 55% → 62% +7OKC 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q13:18Cam Spencer makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jerami Grant assists)OKC 23 – 21 MEM · MEM 32% → 38% +6MEM 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q12:50Javon Small makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)OKC 25 – 24 MEM · MEM 34% → 41% +7MEM 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q12:11Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 30 – 24 MEM · OKC 64% → 70% +6OKC 64% → 70%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Thunder 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -3.5
- ML OKC -152 / MEM +128
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- OKC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 50.8%, market 57.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -138
- MEM +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.5 – 111.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −77 | +76 | OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −40, Jalen Williams −31, Jaylin Williams −1 · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −2, Isaiah Stewart −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +5 Elo | OKC 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 57.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.0 | Points scored | 120.54th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 109.89th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +10.83rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 116.64th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 106.27th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.914th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 1st of 301544 | Opponent Elo | 141130th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301645 | Elo rating | 145221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 14–0 MEM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 14.
- Jan 9OKC 117 @ MEM 116Picked OKC 66%Hit
- Dec 22MEM 103 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Nov 9OKC 114 @ MEM 100Picked OKC 79%Hit
- Apr 26OKC 117 @ MEM 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 89%Hit
- Apr 24OKC 114 @ MEM 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 22MEM 99 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 20MEM 80 @ OKC 131PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Mar 27MEM 104 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 80%Hit